Polymarket TD Props: Best Monday Night Football Anytime TD Trades + Polymarket Code ACTION

Monday Night Football closes NFL Week 3 with the Philadelphia Eagles facing off against the Chicago Bears, and Polymarket has the full anytime touchdown board live for the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff at Soldier Field. Fourteen players are priced, from Saquon Barkley at the top of the market down to a cluster of 12¢ contracts on the back end of both benches.

The setup is unusual enough to be worth trading. The Bears enter Monday leading the NFL in rushing offense at 212.5 yards per game, with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combining for 316 yards and four touchdowns, and they get a Philadelphia front that ranks 27th in EPA per rush while allowing 4.2 yards per carry. On the other side, Barkley still has not reached the end zone this season, and Chicago will be without Caleb Williams and is expected to start Case Keenum, which has moved the game total down toward 41.5.

Below is the full Polymarket board, ranked by implied probability, followed by a breakdown of the eight Monday Night Football player props contracts that actually offer something. Every price and percentage comes straight off the live board.

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears Prediction

The last time these teams met, in Philadelphia in November, the Bears rushed for 281 yards in a 24-15 win while Swift and Monangai both cleared 100 yards and Chicago held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Vic Fangio's front has not fixed that problem yet, and this is the week Chicago most needs the ground game to carry the offense.

Philadelphia arrives 2-0 but thinner than the record suggests. Dallas Goedert, Hollywood Brown and tackle Fred Johnson are all out, which strips the red zone down to Barkley, DeVonta Smith and whatever Hurts does with his legs. That concentration is the whole story on the Eagles' half of this board.

Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Market – Saquon Barkley

A coin flip is where the board should be, and that is close to fair rather than a gift. Barkley has 19 carries for 92 yards and no touchdowns through two games, and he took a stinger on the first play from scrimmage against Tennessee and was held to four carries before being cleared this weekend with no designation. At 50% (50¢) you are paying full price for the goal-line role on a 3.5-point favorite, with the caveat that the Eagles have not run the ball well yet.

A $100 position at 50¢ buys 200 shares, each worth $1.00 if he crosses the plane once. Note that the No side is quoted at 51¢, so the book is tight here and fees plus available depth will leave the realized net a touch under the headline number.

• If Barkley finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $100.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.0x payout multiple, which is the cleanest risk profile on the board and the least interesting price on it.

Editor's Pick Anytime Touchdown Scorer – D'Andre Swift

This is the Editor's Pick, and the reasoning is simple: the price is nine cents below Barkley's while the underlying case is stronger. Swift has 34 carries for 169 yards and three touchdowns against a Philadelphia run defense sitting 27th in EPA per rush, and with Keenum under center the Bears have every reason to lean on the ground game rather than ask their third quarterback to throw 35 times. At 41% (41¢) that reads light.

$100 at 41¢ is roughly 244 shares. The order book on the favorites here is liquid enough to fill that size, though taker fees on sports markets mean the net settles slightly below $143.90.

• If Swift finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $143.90 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.4x payout multiple on the most likely touchdown in the game, which is the best shape on the board.

Best Quarterback Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Jalen Hurts

Every touchdown Hurts throws is worthless to this contract, so the entire 38% is the sneak and the short-yardage keeper. He has 12 carries for 62 yards this season and remains effective as a runner, and with Goedert out and the interior line shuffled, the quarterback is arguably Philadelphia's most reliable path from the two-yard line.

A $100 buy at 38¢ is about 263 shares. The number looks fair rather than soft, since it is entirely dependent on the Eagles reaching goal-to-go in a game with a 41.5 total.

• If Hurts scores on the ground: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $163.16 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.6x payout multiple, priced about right for a market that lives or dies on one specific play call.

Best Wide Receiver Anytime Touchdown Scorer – DeVonta Smith

With A.J. Brown gone and Hollywood Brown out, Smith is the offense. He has caught 13 of 19 targets for 170 yards and a touchdown, including a 10-catch, 117-yard game in Tennessee, and he cleared a hamstring issue without a designation. Chicago's outside corners are the pressure point, with Tyrique Stevenson nursing a hamstring and Jaylon Johnson opposite him.

$100 at 34¢ buys roughly 294 shares. That price implies about a one-in-three chance for a receiver drawing double-digit targets on a night when there is nobody else to throw to, which is the softest of the four Eagles prices.

• If Smith finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $194.12 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Just under a 3x payout multiple on a target-share bet, and the most defensible non-running-back position in the game.

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Best Big-Play Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Dontayvion Wicks

The former Packer has been Philadelphia's quiet second option. Wicks has seven catches for 147 yards and a touchdown, averaging 21.0 yards per catch on a steady diet of deep looks, against a Chicago defense allowing the fourth-highest explosive pass rate in the league.

$100 at 22¢ works out to about 455 shares. This one resolves on one connected shot rather than accumulated volume, which is exactly why it is priced at 22% and not higher.

• If Wicks finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $354.55 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4.5x payout multiple on a boom-or-bust profile, and a reasonable small-stake swing rather than a core position.

Best Matchup Friendly Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Colston Loveland

This is the board's bet on a role correction. Loveland has one catch for three yards on five targets through two games after catching 58 passes for 713 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie, and Chicago went as far as keeping him in pass protection on a first-and-goal snap from the 12 against Minnesota. The counterweight is real: Philadelphia ranked first in DVOA against tight ends in 2025 and sits second in receiving yards per game allowed to the position in 2026.

A $100 buy at 21% (21¢) is roughly 476 shares. You are being paid to bet that Ben Johnson finally uses his best red zone weapon as one, into the worst possible matchup for it.

• If Loveland finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $376.19 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 4.8x payout multiple, and the contract on this board most likely to look obvious in either direction by 11:30 p.m. ET.

Best Longshot Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Cole Kmet

Tied for the widest price on the board, and the veteran has already done this once. Kmet caught two of three targets for 35 yards and scored in the Week 1 win over Carolina while Loveland was shut out. A backup quarterback making his first start in nearly three years tends to look for the tight end he trusts, and heavy sets favor Kmet's snap count.

$100 at 12% (12¢) is roughly 833 shares. The path is narrow and the same Eagles coverage numbers that hurt Loveland apply here too.

• If Kmet finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $733.33 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly an 8.3x payout multiple on a genuinely narrow path, which makes it a small-stake dart rather than anything to size up.

Polymarket has more markets live on this game beyond the anytime touchdown board, including alternate touchdown totals on the same players.

How to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions on Polymarket

Ready to take a position on tonight's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.

NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The dominant theme is a quarterback absence that has not fully repriced the skill positions. Chicago was a 1.5-point favorite on the lookahead before Caleb Williams was hurt, and Philadelphia now lays 3.5, a five-point swing. The market moved the sides and the total but left both Bears running backs priced as if this were a normal week, which is the gap worth trading.

The Eagles' half of the board is doing the opposite. Barkley at 50¢ and Hurts at 38¢ both carry full freight in an offense that has not produced a rushing touchdown from its lead back yet, while Smith at 34¢ looks light for a receiver who is effectively the only healthy option outside of the backfield.

Loveland at 21¢ is the one price reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than a mispricing. Nobody, including Chicago's coaching staff, seems to know how much he will be used, and a market that cannot forecast usage should sit wide.

Lineup and weather news can reprice this board quickly in the hour before kickoff, so watch the live prices through the prediction market apps rather than locking in early and looking away.

NFL Predictions: Final Thoughts

This is a compressed board. The full 14-player market runs from 50¢ down to 12¢, with no true longshots in the 3¢ to 6¢ range, which tells you the market expects a low-scoring game where touchdowns concentrate among a handful of names.

The theme that repeats is run-first. Three of the four most defensible prices belong to running backs, and both of Chicago's are cheaper than they should be given how this game projects to be played. With a 41.5 total, the receivers behind Smith and Wicks are competing for a very small number of end zone trips.

Treat each contract as an independent all-or-nothing position rather than a parlay, size the 12¢ to 22¢ prices as darts, and remember that a No resolution costs the full stake regardless of how close the player came.

NFL Predictions and Touchdown Bets: Polymarket Promo Code FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code and offer?

New users can sign up with the Polymarket promo code ACTION to claim the current welcome offer. Eligibility and availability vary by state, and you must be 21+ and present in an eligible state to trade.

What are the best touchdown bets on tonight's Polymarket board?

D'Andre Swift at 41¢ is the strongest price given Chicago's rushing volume and Philadelphia's 27th-ranked EPA per rush defense. Kyle Monangai at 28¢ and DeVonta Smith at 34¢ are the next two best prices on the board.

Which player carries the highest implied probability?

Saquon Barkley at 50% (50¢) is the shortest contract on the board, with the No side quoted at 51¢. Swift follows at 41% and Jalen Hurts at 38%.

How do Polymarket anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

Each contract is a Yes or No share priced in cents that settles at $1.00 or $0. Per the market rules shown on the board, anytime touchdowns count every touchdown the player scores except passing touchdowns, so rushing, receiving, return and fumble-recovery scores all resolve the contract Yes.

Do Jalen Hurts's passing touchdowns count?

No. A quarterback's anytime touchdown contract resolves Yes only on a touchdown he scores himself, which for Hurts means a rushing touchdown. Throwing four touchdown passes would still resolve the contract No.

When do these contracts settle?

Anytime touchdown contracts settle after the game is official, based on the final NFL results. Positions can also be closed at the prevailing market price before settlement rather than held to resolution.

What is the Editor's Pick for Eagles vs Bears?

D'Andre Swift at 41¢, for a profit of $143.90 on a $100 position. He has three touchdowns already, Chicago leads the NFL in rushing at 212.5 yards per game, and with Case Keenum starting the Bears have every incentive to keep the ball on the ground.

Are more markets available beyond the anytime touchdown board?

Yes. Polymarket lists additional markets on this game, including alternate touchdown totals for the same players, alongside the rest of its NFL board. Note that fees and order book depth mean the net on a filled position lands slightly under the headline payout math.

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.