The South Carolina Senate race is drawing national money and attention even though the state hasn't elected a Democrat to the seat in more than two decades.
Republican Darline Graham, who took over her late brother Lindsey Graham's seat in July, is facing a tougher fight than almost anyone expected from Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews.
With early voting starting October 19 and Election Day set for November 3, both Polymarket and Kalshi show Graham as a strong favorite heading into the final stretch.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (86¢) | $116.28 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (16¢) | $625.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (86¢) | $116.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (15¢) | $666.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current South Carolina Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's contracts for the South Carolina Senate race are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, with each cent representing the implied probability of that candidate winning.
A "Yes" contract pays out $1.00 if that candidate wins the Nov. 3 general election and $0 if they lose, and traders can buy or sell their position right up until the race is called.
This market resolves once a winner of South Carolina's special U.S. Senate election is officially determined.
Darline Graham (YES 86¢ / NO 15¢)
Graham is the clear favorite on Polymarket, and that lines up with South Carolina's deep red lean, a state Donald Trump carried by 18 points in 2024 and one that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since Fritz Hollings left office two decades ago.
She took over the seat her brother Lindsey Graham held for more than two decades after his death in July, won a contested GOP primary runoff over Rep. Ralph Norman, and has since drawn Trump's endorsement along with a $5 million assist from the Senate Leadership Fund.
Even so, the Polymarket price sits well above where the closest independent polling has the race, a gap worth watching as early voting opens October 19.
Annie Andrews (YES 16¢ / NO 85¢)
Andrews, a Mount Pleasant pediatrician making her second straight run for office after a 2022 congressional bid, is trying to become the first Democrat to win a South Carolina Senate seat in more than 20 years.
Multiple surveys this fall, including an InsiderAdvantage poll that had her within a single point of Graham, suggest the Graham vs Andrews polls are far closer than Polymarket's 16% price implies.
That disconnect is a big reason South Carolina has become an unexpected late-cycle target, with Andrews outraising expectations and national Democrats eyeing it as a longshot pickup.
Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's event contracts for the South Carolina Senate race work the same way, trading from 1¢ to 99¢ based on the market's implied probability.
A "Yes" position settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins on Nov. 3 and $0 if they don't, and traders can adjust their position any time before the contract closes.
Like its Polymarket counterpart, this contract resolves once South Carolina's special Senate election is officially called.
Darline Graham (YES 86¢ / NO 15¢)
Kalshi has Graham priced almost identically to Polymarket, giving her an 85% implied chance of holding the seat.
That tracks with the late push from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and South Carolina's senior senator Tim Scott, who campaigned alongside Graham earlier this month as the GOP poured another $5 million into the race.
Graham herself has called it a close race even while projecting confidence that Republicans will hold the seat.
Annie Andrews (YES 15¢ / NO 86¢)
Kalshi's board gives Andrews a 15% chance, almost a mirror image of her Polymarket price.
Both markets are pricing her well below the margin shown in the tightest Graham vs Andrews polls, including a late September Trafalgar Group survey that had Graham ahead by just a single point.
The Oct. 11 debate between Andrews, Graham and Libertarian Kasie Whitener gave Andrews a high profile moment to make her case directly to undecided voters.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on South Carolina Senate Race Odds
Polymarket and Kalshi agree almost exactly on this race: Graham is YES 86¢ on Polymarket and YES 86¢ on Kalshi, while Andrews sits at YES 16¢ on Polymarket and YES 15¢ on Kalshi.
That tight alignment is unusual for a contested Senate race, and it suggests both exchanges are reading the same signal: South Carolina's Republican lean, the late money pouring in behind Graham, and a sense that the closer public polls haven't fully convinced traders.
The real divergence here isn't between the two markets, it's between both markets and the public polling, where an InsiderAdvantage survey had Graham up just 46% to 45% and a Trafalgar poll showed a one point race.
If Andrews outperforms her market price on election night, it would mark one of the widest gaps between polls and prediction markets of the entire 2026 midterm cycle.
South Carolina Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
The biggest influence on this board right now is money. The Senate Leadership Fund has committed $5 million to defend a seat Republicans didn't expect to spend on, and Trump has posted repeatedly in Graham's defense as the race has tightened.
Andrews has leaned into pocketbook messaging, calling for suspending the gas tax and taking on insurance companies, while Republicans have targeted her with a seven figure ad campaign questioning her record.
The Oct. 11 debate between Graham, Andrews and Whitener was the first time the candidates shared a stage, and both sides used it to sharpen their closing arguments heading into early voting.
Graham's camp is betting that South Carolina's 18 point Trump margin from 2024 reasserts itself once statewide advertising ramps up, while Andrews needs the tightest polls to prove more accurate than the markets currently believe.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Darline Graham | YES (86¢) | $116.28 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Annie Andrews | YES (16¢) | $625.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Darline Graham | YES (86¢) | $116.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Annie Andrews | YES (15¢) | $666.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade South Carolina Senate Race Odds on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the South Carolina Senate race tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the South Carolina Senate race tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
South Carolina Senate Race: Final Thoughts
Darline Graham remains the clear market favorite in the South Carolina Senate race on both Polymarket and Kalshi, but the gap between those prices and the tightest public polling is bigger than almost anywhere else on the 2026 board.
Annie Andrews has turned a race nobody expected to matter into a genuine late-cycle watch item, and whether she can close that final gap will say a lot about whether South Carolina's red lean still holds in a changing political environment.
South Carolina Senate Race FAQs
How do South Carolina Senate race odds work on Polymarket and Kalshi?
Each contract is priced from 1¢ to 99¢, with the price reflecting the market's implied probability that a given candidate wins. A "Yes" contract pays $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
When does the South Carolina Senate race market resolve?
Both markets resolve once a winner is officially determined in the November 3, 2026 general election for South Carolina's U.S. Senate seat.
What do the latest Graham vs Andrews polls show?
Public polling has tightened sharply this fall, with an InsiderAdvantage survey showing Graham ahead just 46% to 45% and a Trafalgar Group poll putting her up by a single point, both well inside the margin of error.
Why do Graham vs Andrews polls differ from the betting odds?
Prediction markets are weighing South Carolina's deep red history, the late surge in GOP spending, and Trump's direct involvement in the race more heavily than the closest public polls, which is why Graham's price on Polymarket and Kalshi runs well ahead of her polling lead.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the South Carolina Senate race almost identically?
Both exchanges are drawing on the same public information, so it's common for them to land within a point or two of each other. Small gaps, like Andrews' 16¢ price on Polymarket versus 15¢ on Kalshi, usually come down to differences in trading volume and timing rather than new information.
Where can I trade the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race market?
You can trade the Polymarket South Carolina Senate Race market directly through the links in this article, which route through Action Network's switchboard to Polymarket's live order book.
Where can I trade the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race market?
You can trade the Kalshi South Carolina Senate Race market directly through the links in this article, which route through Action Network's switchboard to Kalshi's live order book.
When is the South Carolina Senate election?
Election Day is November 3, 2026, with in-person early voting running from October 19 through October 31 across South Carolina.
