Dancing With the Stars hits the ballroom for its first-ever Super Bowl Night on October 13, with the top 11 couples dancing to songs tied to past halftime shows. Tyler Cameron has emerged as the new favorite to go home on both exchanges after weeks of flying under the radar, while Guillermo Rodriguez continues to find a way to survive despite sitting at the bottom of the leaderboard. Here's how Kalshi and Polymarket traders are pricing tonight's elimination.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
- Premiere Night 1 (Sept. 15): Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman
- Premiere Night 2 (Sept. 16): Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills
- Week 2, Viral Hits Night (Sept. 22): Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten
- Week 3, Yacht Rock Night (Sept. 29): Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart
- Week 4, Mariah Carey Night (Oct. 6): Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong
DWTS Week 5 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's elimination market lets traders buy "Yes" or "No" on whether a specific couple goes home tonight, with contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢. A "Yes" settles at $1 if that couple is sent home after the live results segment, so the cent price doubles as the market's implied probability.
Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (49%, Yes 49¢ / No 52¢, +10 pts)
Cameron has posted back-to-back 21-out-of-30 scores the last two weeks, solid but unremarkable next to the season's standout performers. Tonight he and Burgess take on a jazz routine to "The Time (Dirty Bit)," and traders have pushed his elimination odds up 10 points, making him the first genuine favorite to go home this season after weeks of staying just clear of trouble.
Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (29%, Yes 29¢ / No 72¢, +1 pts)
Olson spent part of the week fielding backlash after a deleted Instagram comment that many fans read as a dig at Guillermo Rodriguez's dancing, followed by a public apology and a joint video with Rodriguez to smooth things over. He salsas to "Uptown Funk" tonight, and while his price barely moved this week, he remains the second-most-likely couple to be sent home.
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (16%, Yes 16¢ / No 85¢, +1 pts)
Ali has been a steady mid-pack presence all season, including a 20-out-of-30 on Mariah Carey Night. She dances a salsa to Kendrick Lamar's "Squabble Up" for Super Bowl Night, and her price has held roughly flat, suggesting traders see her as safe without being a frontrunner.
Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson (13%, Yes 13¢ / No 88¢, -5 pts)
Rodriguez has been a fixture at the bottom of the judges' leaderboard all season, including the night's lowest score, a 13 out of 30, on Mariah Carey Night, yet fan votes have kept him and Carson around every week. His elimination odds dropped 5 points this week, continuing the pattern of judges' scores and viewer support pulling in opposite directions for the Jimmy Kimmel Live sidekick.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (7%, no movement): Stiles has stayed in the safe middle of the pack all season and dances jazz to a J.Lo remix tonight.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (5%, -1 pts): Wood has quietly improved most weeks and takes on a samba to Shakira's "Hips Don't Lie."
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (2%): Dewan has been one of the season's most consistent performers and dances a paso doble to Lady Gaga's "Bad Romance."
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (<1%): The Olympic figure skater has turned in some of the season's top scores and samba's to "Mi Gente" tonight.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (<1%): The Paralympic gold medalist remains the favorite in the season-long winner market and salsas to Nelly's "Hot in Herre."
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (<1%): Shum has been near the top of the leaderboard for multiple weeks running and dances samba to Usher's "Yeah!"
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (<1%): Higgins earned the season's first 9 and the night's top score on Mariah Carey Night, and tangos to Rihanna's "Only Girl (In the World)" tonight.
You can sign up at Kalshi using promo code ACTION55 and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $55!
DWTS Week 5 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's version of the market works the same way: shares trade between 1% and 99% implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a given couple pays out $1 if that couple is eliminated tonight. The board is read the same way as Kalshi's, just quoted in percentage rather than cents.
| 🪩 Couple | 🎯 Eliminated Yes | Price | 💰 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Tyler Cameron | Eliminated Yes (52¢) | $92.31 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Jackson Olson & Emma Slater | Jackson Olson | Eliminated Yes (28¢) | $257.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (17¢) | $488.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson | Guillermo Rodriguez | Eliminated Yes (15¢) | $566.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa | Julia Stiles | Eliminated Yes (7¢) | $1,328.57 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold | Connor Wood | Eliminated Yes (5¢) | $1,900.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (52%, Yes 52¢ / No 70¢, +11 pts)
Polymarket traders have pushed Cameron even higher than Kalshi has, up 11 points on the week. His steady-but-unspectacular run, now including two straight 21s, has finally caught up with him as the board's new favorite heading into Super Bowl Night.
Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (28%, Yes 28¢ / No 74¢)
Olson's price is essentially unchanged from where Kalshi has him, with the lingering fallout from his deleted comment about Rodriguez still part of the conversation. He sits comfortably in second on both boards ahead of his salsa to "Uptown Funk."
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (17%, Yes 17¢ / No 86¢, +1 pts)
Ali's number is nearly identical across both exchanges, a small uptick after a 20-point Mariah Carey Night score that kept her safely out of the bottom tier.
Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson (15%, Yes 15¢ / No 89¢, -5 pts)
Polymarket shows the same 5-point drop for Rodriguez that Kalshi does, reinforcing that both fan bases are reading his bottom-of-the-leaderboard scores the same way: a trader base that expects the fan vote to carry him through another week.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (7%): Identical to her Kalshi price, reflecting a quiet, safe season for Stiles so far.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (5%, -1 pts): Tracking Kalshi almost exactly ahead of his "Hips Don't Lie" samba.
- Amber Glenn, Ezra Frech, Harry Shum Jr. and Jenna Dewan: All remain untraded or unpriced on Polymarket's board, reflecting how little danger the market sees for the season's front-runners.
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas: Also untraded, consistent with her status as the owner of the season's top score so far.
Sign up with the Polymarket promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on DWTS Week 5
The two boards are, for the first time all season, nearly mirror images of each other. Both have Cameron as a new, clear favorite in the high-40s to low-50s, both have Olson locked into second in the high-20s, and both show Rodriguez absorbing the same 5-point drop this week. The only real gap is at the top: Polymarket has Cameron three points higher than Kalshi does, which is a thin enough spread to read as noise on a market still settling into its Super Bowl Night pricing rather than a genuine disagreement between the two trader bases.
Several couples, including Higgins, Glenn, Frech and Dewan, simply haven't traded on Polymarket yet, while Kalshi shows thin but real action on all of them under 1%, a liquidity difference rather than a pricing one.
DWTS Week 5 Price Analysis: Who Could Actually Get Eliminated?
The headline move this week is Cameron's double-digit jump on both exchanges, flipping him from an afterthought into the favorite. Two straight weeks at 21 out of 30, in a season that has rewarded flashier, higher-variance performers, appears to be catching up with him just as the vulnerable, high-profile names traders expected to see eliminated first have already gone home.
Olson's price has been steadier, but the Guillermo Rodriguez comment controversy and subsequent apology kept his name in the conversation through the week, and traders don't appear to be fully pricing in whatever goodwill his public patch-up with Rodriguez bought him.
Rodriguez remains the season's clearest case of judges' scores and fan votes pulling in opposite directions. He has sat at or near the bottom of the leaderboard nearly every week, including the lowest score of Mariah Carey Night, yet both markets have his elimination odds falling, not rising, a sign that traders expect the fan vote that has saved him before to do so again.
Because Super Bowl Night's judges' scores won't post until after the live broadcast, tonight's board could still move quickly on the show itself. A rough night from Cameron or Olson would only reinforce where the money already is, but a surprise low score for one of the couples currently priced under 1%, or a strong reaction from first-time guest judge Joe Buck, could reshuffle the board before the results segment airs.
What is DWTS Super Bowl Night?
Super Bowl Night is a new theme for Season 35, and the first time in the show's history that an entire episode has been built around football's biggest stage. ABC has billed it as a tribute to "the music, spectacle and unforgettable moments of the big game," with the 11 remaining couples each performing to a song pulled from a past Super Bowl halftime show rather than dancing to a football anthem directly.
The theme doubles as part of ABC and ESPN's promotional push toward Super Bowl LXI, which the networks will air together in February. Fittingly, the night leans on the NFL for its guest list: play-by-play announcer Joe Buck joins the judging panel for the evening, and DWTS alums Emmitt Smith, Donald Driver, Danny Amendola and DeMarcus Ware all make appearances as the show leans into the crossover.
As for the dancing itself, the routines run from Ezra Frech's salsa to Nelly's "Hot in Herre" to Jenna Dewan's paso doble to Lady Gaga's "Bad Romance," with the judges' scores and live viewer votes combining as usual to decide who goes home at the end of the night.
How to Trade DWTS Week 5 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION55 when signing up to Trade $25, Get $55!
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
