The Texas Governor race and Texas Senate race have both tightened into genuine dogfights heading into Election Day, and Polymarket and Kalshi are not pricing them the same way.
Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico and Ken Paxton all have live Texas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, plus a handful of Governor-Senate combo bets tied to a split outcome.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor Race | Polymarket | Greg Abbott | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Governor Race | Polymarket | Gina Hinojosa | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Governor Race | Kalshi | Greg Abbott | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Governor Race | Kalshi | Gina Hinojosa | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Senate Race | Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Senate Race | Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Senate Race | Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Senate Race | Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Governor race and Texas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Texas Governor Election Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Texas contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Texas Governor election market and the Senate market resolve the night the race is called against the certified statewide result from the November 3 election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Texas Governor Race
Greg Abbott (YES 76¢ / NO 25¢, -3 pts)
Abbott has slipped three points but still sits at a near 3-to-1 favorite, and that gap between the trading price and the polling margin is the single biggest story in this race.
Recent nonpartisan polling, including YouGov's survey putting Hinojosa up 48-47, has shown a true toss-up, yet the market is still leaning hard on incumbency, fundraising and Texas's statewide red lean to keep Abbott comfortably favored.
Gina Hinojosa (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢, +1 pt)
Hinojosa ticked up a point and the underlying Hinojosa vs Abbott polls explain why traders haven't written her off.
She's led in multiple September surveys and is running ahead with independents, suburban women and voters under 45, even as a newer ReconMR poll flipped narrowly back to Abbott.
Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (YES 62¢ / NO 40¢, -2 pts)
Talarico gave back two points but remains the clear Senate favorite, a notable outcome in a state Republicans have carried comfortably in every recent cycle.
The latest Talarico vs Paxton polls, including Fox News's survey showing Talarico ahead 51-49, back up the market's read that Paxton's personal baggage is costing him ground a generic Republican wouldn't lose.
Ken Paxton (YES 40¢ / NO 62¢, +2 pts)
Paxton gained two points off the back of President Trump's Denton rally, which doubled as a base-turnout push on his behalf.
Even with that bump, Talarico vs Paxton polls have stayed inside the margin of error all fall, and the market still treats Paxton as the underdog.
Texas Governor Race and Texas Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts settle once the Texas Secretary of State certifies the winner of the November 3 general election.
Texas Governor Race
Greg Abbott (YES 76¢ / NO 25¢, -2 pts)
Kalshi's board matches Polymarket's almost tick for tick here, with Abbott giving back two points but still trading as a heavy favorite.
Gina Hinojosa (YES 25¢ / NO 76¢, +2 pts)
Hinojosa gained two points on Kalshi too, and the move lines up with the same Hinojosa vs Abbott polls driving sentiment on Polymarket.
Texas Senate Race
James Talarico (YES 62¢ / NO 39¢, -3 pts)
Talarico slipped three points on Kalshi, a slightly bigger pullback than Polymarket showed, but he's still the clear choice in the market's eyes.
Ken Paxton (YES 39¢ / NO 62¢, +3 pts)
Paxton's three-point gain is the sharpest single move on either board, and it tracks with the post-rally bump Republicans are hoping translates into turnout.
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Texas Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges also let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
Polymarket prices all four possible combinations, while Kalshi's board only lists the three realistic ones and leaves the longest shot off entirely.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Reps win Governor, Dems win Senate | YES 47¢ | NO 58¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Republicans sweep both seats | YES 37¢ | NO 64¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Democrats sweep both seats | YES 25¢ | NO 76¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dems win Governor, Reps win Senate | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Abbott and Talarico win (split ticket) | YES 42¢ | NO 59¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Abbott and Paxton win (GOP sweep) | YES 39¢ | NO 64¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Hinojosa and Talarico win (Dem sweep) | YES 26¢ | NO 78¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Texas Governor and Senate Races
The two boards are in near lockstep on both races. Abbott sits at YES 76¢ on both exchanges, Hinojosa at YES 25¢ on both, and Talarico and Paxton are within two cents of each other platform to platform.
The real divergence isn't between the exchanges, it's between the exchanges and the public polling. Hinojosa vs Abbott polls have swung from a 48-47 Hinojosa lead in YouGov's survey to a 48-47 Abbott lead in ReconMR's a week later, yet both markets have Abbott locked in near YES 76¢, a far wider gap than the polling margin implies.
The Senate race shows the same pattern in reverse. Talarico vs Paxton polls have him up just 51-49 in the Fox News poll, well within the margin of error, but both exchanges still price him around YES 62¢, treating his lead as more durable than the raw polling number suggests.
Where the two platforms genuinely diverge is contract design, not price: Polymarket lists all four Governor-Senate combinations, down to the 2% long shot, while Kalshi's combo market only surfaces the three realistic scenarios and omits the Hinojosa-Paxton split entirely, folding that near-zero outcome out of the board rather than quoting it.
Texas Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The biggest swing on either board this week is Paxton's three-point gain, which both platforms tie to Trump's Denton rally and the turnout push it represents for Republican base voters.
Abbott's slide from the high 70s to 76¢ reflects genuine erosion, not noise, since it's shown up on both exchanges at nearly the same magnitude even as individual polls have bounced in both directions.
The overall shape is two very different races wearing the same ballot: a lopsided Governor market where Abbott is a heavy favorite despite a dead-heat polling average, and a genuine Senate toss-up where a Democrat is actually favored in a state Republicans usually carry with room to spare.
Early voting opens October 19, and any sustained shift in that turnout data, combined with whatever the next round of Hinojosa vs Abbott polls and Talarico vs Paxton polls show, is the most likely trigger to reprice either board before November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor Race | Polymarket | Greg Abbott | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Governor Race | Polymarket | Gina Hinojosa | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Governor Race | Kalshi | Greg Abbott | YES (76¢) | $131.58 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Governor Race | Kalshi | Gina Hinojosa | YES (25¢) | $400.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Senate Race | Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Senate Race | Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Texas Senate Race | Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (62¢) | $161.29 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Texas Senate Race | Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (39¢) | $256.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Governor and Senate Races on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Governor Race and Texas Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is one ballot producing two completely different kinds of markets: a lopsided Governor race where Abbott is a near 3-to-1 favorite despite a polling average that's basically tied, and a genuine Senate toss-up where a Democrat is the actual favorite in a state Republicans usually don't have to sweat.
Watch the combo bets for the clearest read on where traders think this is headed. A split ticket is priced as the most likely single outcome on both exchanges, which tells you the market expects Texas voters to break differently in these two races rather than vote a straight party line.
Texas Governor Race and Texas Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Texas Governor race odds?
Greg Abbott is trading at 76¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, implying a 76% chance of winning, while Gina Hinojosa sits at 25¢ on both exchanges.
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
James Talarico is the favorite at 62¢ on both platforms, with Ken Paxton priced between 39¢ and 40¢ depending on the exchange.
What do the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show?
The most recent Fox News poll has Talarico ahead of Paxton 51-49, a lead inside the margin of error even though both prediction markets price him as a clearer favorite.
How do Hinojosa vs Abbott polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
Hinojosa vs Abbott polls have been genuinely split, with YouGov showing Hinojosa narrowly ahead and ReconMR showing Abbott narrowly ahead days later, while both markets have kept Abbott near 76¢ throughout.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi disagree slightly on the Texas Governor election?
The two boards actually agree closely on price. The real gap is in contract design: the Texas Governor election combo board on Polymarket lists a 2¢ long-shot outcome that Kalshi leaves off its board entirely.
Could Talarico vs Paxton polls tighten further before November 3?
It's possible. The race has stayed within a couple of points all fall, and a strong Republican turnout push off the Trump rally in Denton could close the gap further by Election Day.
Are Hinojosa vs Abbott polls more predictive than the prediction markets?
Neither source has been consistently right this cycle. The polls have flipped the lead twice in a month, while the markets have stayed steadier around Abbott as a heavy favorite, and both will be tested once votes are counted.
What's the difference between the Texas Senate race winner market and the combo bets?
The winner markets just price Talarico against Paxton head to head, while the combo bets tie that outcome to the Governor's race, letting traders bet on a split ticket or a party sweep across both seats at once.
How do I trade the Texas Governor race and Texas Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
