The Texas Senate Race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has turned into one of the tightest statewide contests of the 2026 midterms.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi currently have Talarico as the favorite to flip the seat John Cornyn is vacating, even as recent public polling shows the race within a point or two.
With early voting starting Oct. 19 and Election Day set for Nov. 3, here's how the two biggest prediction markets are pricing the Talarico vs Paxton matchup right now.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (65¢) | $153.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (37¢) | $270.27 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (64¢) | $156.25 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (37¢) | $270.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Senate Race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices the Texas Senate Race the same way it prices any event contract: shares trade between 1¢ and 99¢, and that price doubles as the market's implied probability of that outcome happening. A "Yes" share settles at $1.00 if the candidate wins the race and $0 if they lose, so the current prices below reflect what traders are willing to pay for each outcome right now. This market resolves once Texas certifies the winner of the Nov. 3 general election.
James Talarico (YES 65¢ / NO 36¢, +1 pt)
Talarico ticked up another point on Polymarket, pushing him further ahead of where the closest public polls have the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket race. The state representative has consistently out-polled Paxton on affordability and cost-of-living questions, the top issue for Texas voters heading into Election Day, and that advantage is showing up in how Polymarket traders are pricing the contract.
Independent and moderate voters have broken decisively for Talarico in survey after survey, and Polymarket's 65¢ price suggests traders think that pattern holds through early voting and into November.
Ken Paxton (YES 37¢ / NO 64¢)
Paxton holds a Trump endorsement and has leaned hard into that support at campaign stops across the state, but his personal favorability numbers remain underwater in nearly every poll released this cycle. Polymarket's 37¢ price implies traders see him as a clear underdog, even in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994.
Texas Senate Kalshi Odds: Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi Prices
Kalshi runs on the same contract logic as Polymarket: the price in cents is the market's implied probability, and the contract settles at $1.00 or $0 once Texas calls the Senate race. Kalshi's Texas Senate winner market resolves on the same timeline, once the official Nov. 3 results are certified.
James Talarico (YES 64¢ / NO 37¢)
Kalshi traders have Talarico just a point behind his Polymarket price, which still puts him comfortably ahead of Paxton on the Texas Senate Kalshi board. The gap between Kalshi's 64¢ and the tightest public polls, which have shown the race separated by two points or less, suggests the Kalshi crowd is weighting Talarico's structural advantages among independents more heavily than a single topline survey number.
Ken Paxton (YES 37¢ / NO 64¢)
Paxton's 37¢ price on Kalshi is nearly identical to his Polymarket number, reinforcing that both boards see him fighting an uphill battle despite running in a state that still leans Republican overall. Watch for any movement tied to his debate performances or new ad spending in the campaign's final weeks.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Texas Senate Race
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on the shape of the Texas Senate Race: Talarico is the favorite on both exchanges, and Paxton is priced as a clear underdog on both. The two boards are within a single point of each other on every contract, which is a sign of a liquid, efficiently priced market rather than one exchange's user base skewing the numbers.
The small gap that does exist, Talarico at YES 65¢ on Polymarket versus YES 64¢ on Kalshi, is well within normal noise for two separately operated order books and isn't wide enough to point to an arbitrage opportunity. Paxton trades at the same YES 37¢ on both platforms, underscoring just how aligned the two crowds are on this race.
What's notable is that both markets are pricing Talarico several points higher than the closest public polls, which have shown the Texas Senate Race within a point or two all fall. That divergence suggests traders are putting extra weight on turnout and crossover-voter trends that a single topline poll number doesn't fully capture.
Texas Senate Race Price Analysis: What the Talarico vs Paxton Polls Are Missing
Talarico opened the general election as a modest favorite after Cornyn lost the Republican runoff to Paxton back in the spring, a result that reshaped the entire race. Since then, Talarico has held a consistent, if narrow, lead across nearly every nonpartisan survey, with some polls showing him up five points and the most recent Fox News poll putting the race at just two points.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing Talarico noticeably higher than that polling average, which tells you the trading crowds think the composition of the electorate (younger, more Latino, more urban than a typical Texas midterm) favors Talarico more than raw polling samples suggest. Affordability remains the top issue in every survey, and Talarico leads Paxton on that question by wide margins.
Paxton's camp is leaning on President Trump's endorsement and a late-cycle rally push to close the gap, and his campaign has argued that undecided Republican-leaning voters will come home by Election Day the way they often do in Texas. Watch early vote totals once they start reporting Oct. 19 for the first real signal of whether that theory is playing out, since a Talarico overperformance there would likely push both markets even higher in his favor.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (65¢) | $153.85 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (37¢) | $270.27 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (64¢) | $156.25 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (37¢) | $270.27 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is a race where the markets and the polls agree on direction but not on margin: Talarico is favored everywhere, but Polymarket and Kalshi both see him with more breathing room than the tightest public surveys suggest.
With Paxton leaning on Trump's endorsement and a late push to close the gap, the next two weeks of early voting data will be the clearest signal of whether the markets or the pollsters have this one right.
Texas Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate Race?
Both Polymarket and Kalshi currently favor Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton, pricing him between 64¢ and 65¢ to win the seat John Cornyn is giving up.
What do the Talarico vs Paxton polls show compared to prediction markets?
The closest recent polls have shown the race separated by just one to two points, while both prediction markets currently price Talarico with a wider, mid-to-high-20s-point edge in implied probability over Paxton.
What is the latest Polymarket Texas Senate price for Talarico vs Paxton?
As of this writing, the Polymarket Texas Senate market has Talarico trading at 65¢ and Paxton at 37¢, meaning Polymarket sees Talarico as roughly two-to-one favored to win.
How does the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market differ from Polymarket?
The Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market is priced almost identically to Polymarket, with Talarico at 64¢ and Paxton at 37¢, a one-point gap that reflects normal variation between two separate order books rather than a meaningful disagreement.
Where can I trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market?
You can trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market directly through Polymarket's Texas Senate election event page, or use the switchboard links in this article to jump straight to the order book.
When does the Texas Senate Race market resolve?
Both the Polymarket and Kalshi contracts resolve once Texas officially certifies the winner of the Nov. 3 general election.
What issues are driving the Texas Senate Race?
Affordability and the cost of living have been the top issue across nearly every poll this cycle, with Talarico consistently leading Paxton on which candidate voters trust more to lower costs.
Has anyone led the Texas Senate Race by a wide margin?
No single poll has shown either candidate up by more than five points, and the race has tightened into the single digits heading into Election Day, even as the prediction markets have Talarico favored by a wider implied margin.
