Yacht Rock Night delivered the highest scores of Season 35 and its first genuinely shocking exit, and Kalshi's outright winner market moved accordingly. With Taylor Hanson and pro partner Britt Stewart sent home Tuesday, traders spent Wednesday morning repricing a Mirrorball field that just got one contender smaller.
Yacht Rock Night Recap: Season-High Scores, and a Shocking Exit
Week 3 leaned into soft-rock deep cuts from Toto, Fleetwood Mac, and Daryl Hall and John Oates, and the format suited the ballroom. Amber Glenn and Pasha Pashkov posted the season's first 24, a foxtrot to "Hold the Line," while Harry Shum Jr. and Jenna Johnson matched that score with a jive to "You Make My Dreams Come True."
Ezra Frech and Daniella Karagach stayed near the top with a 21 for their foxtrot, and Maura Higgins and Mark Ballas turned in a 22. But the night's twist came at elimination: Taylor Hanson and Britt Stewart, who scored an 18 for their foxtrot, were voted off in what recappers called the season's first true upset over lower-scoring couples like Guillermo Rodriguez (15) and Tyler Cameron (17).
Hanson's exit leaves 13 couples in the ballroom, with Week 1 (Conner Leavitt, Sarah Jane Nader) and Week 2 (Giada De Laurentiis) eliminations already in the books ahead of him.
DWTS Season 35 Kalshi Winner Odds: How the Board Moved After Week 3
Kalshi's Season 35 winner market is a single event contract per couple, priced 1 cent to 99 cents per share, where the price roughly tracks the implied probability that couple lifts the Mirrorball on finale night, November 24. A "Yes" share settles at $1 if that couple wins the season; every other contract settles at zero.
Because it's an outright market rather than a weekly elimination line, this board doesn't reset after each episode. It just drifts, and this week it drifted hard toward one name.
Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (50%, Yes 50¢ / No 51¢, +5 pts)
Frech opened the week at 45% and is now the first couple to cross the 50 mark, cementing him as the field's clear favorite. His 21 on Yacht Rock Night wasn't the top score of the night, but traders appear to be pricing in consistency: three straight weeks in the 20s without a bad outing.
Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (12%, Yes 12¢ / No 89¢, down from 17% opening)
Shum matched the season-high 24 on Tuesday, yet his winner shares actually fell five points on the week. That's a reminder that this market cares about the finish line, not the leaderboard: recap writers have flagged his prior dance experience as a ceiling on audience-vote upside, even as the judges keep rewarding him.
Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (13%, Yes 13¢ / No 88¢, +1 pt)
Higgins ticked up slightly after a 22 on a quickstep to "Turn Your Love Around," but she's still down from her 15% open. Recaps describe her as steadier than sharp this week, hiding her nerves rather than shedding them, which is roughly how the market is treating her: safe, not surging.
Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (11-12%, +1 pt)
The Olympic figure skater posted the season's first 24 and drew some of the loudest praise of the night for how naturally her skating background reads in a foxtrot. Her winner contract nudged up on the week but remains capped below Frech's, suggesting traders see her as a podium threat more than the outright favorite.
Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (11%, Yes 11¢ / No 90¢, down from 12% opening)
Dewan's samba to "Africa" drew constructive criticism for reading as overzealous once the chorus hit, and her winner shares slipped slightly on the week. She's still top-five, but the market seems to be waiting for a cleaner performance before moving her back up.
- Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson (3%, +1 pt): A 15 was one of his weaker scores, but his winner contract actually rose, likely on fan-favorite goodwill outlasting the judges' patience.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (2%, down 1 pt): His first score in the 20s wasn't enough to reverse a slide from 3% at the open.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (2%, down 1 pt): Another season-long six on Tuesday keeps him priced as a longshot.
- Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (2%, down 1 pt): A strong closing stretch on his jive wasn't enough to move the needle much.
- Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong (under 1%): Steady improvement each week, but the winner market has priced her as a longer-term project.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (under 1%): Her first seven of the season didn't change her long-shot standing.
- Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (under 1%): A breakout quickstep moment kept her off the bottom of the leaderboard, but the winner market still has her as a deep long shot.
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DWTS Season 35 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The single biggest mover this week was Ezra Frech, whose five-point jump to 50% pulled him decisively away from the rest of the field. He's now the only couple traders have priced above even money against the whole rest of the cast combined.
Taylor Hanson's elimination is the other major story. His exit removes a recognizable name from the board and, according to Tuesday's recaps, surprised viewers more than it surprised the judges, who had scored him below several couples still sitting under 3% in the winner market.
The midfield behind Frech, Shum, Higgins, Glenn, and Dewan remains genuinely contested, none of them separated by more than two points, which keeps this a two-tier race rather than a coronation. What could reshuffle the board before the finale is a slump from Frech or a signature moment from one of the mid-teens couples that finally separates them from the pack.
How to Trade the DWTS Season 35 Winner Market on Kalshi
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- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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