All four MLB Wild Card Series reach Game 2 today, and every one of them sits one swing away from an elimination game. That leverage puts home run predictions today at the center of the card. Polymarket prices each one as a straight yes or no contract, so you buy in, add to the position, or sell out before the final out.
Here is the slate of games to trade home run predictions today:
| Matchup | First Pitch (ET) | Projected Pitching Matchup |
|---|---|---|
| Phillies vs. Braves | 2:00 p.m. | Cristopher Sánchez vs. Tyler Mahle |
| White Sox vs. Astros | 5:00 p.m. | Sean Burke vs. Hunter Brown |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | 8:00 p.m. | Sonny Gray vs. Max Fried |
| Cubs vs. Padres | 10:00 p.m. | Clay Holmes vs. Nick Pivetta |
Prediction market apps are my favorite way to trade MLB odds on home run picks today, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026. My favorite way for new traders to make predictions is to register with Polymarket promo code ACTION. Create an account, deposit $10, and unlock $50 in tradable bonus funds.
Home Run Predictions Today: One Pick Per Game
Take a look at my home run predictions today on Polymarket from each Game 2 on the docket:
Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves (Phillies vs. Braves, 2:00 p.m.)
- Acuña closed the regular season with seven homers and a .950 OPS in September.
- Sánchez throws from the left side. Acuña's bat speed against lefties gives him the cleanest swing path on the early card.
- Philadelphia went 4-9 against Atlanta this season, and warm afternoon air at Truist Park helps the ball carry.
Yordan Alvarez, Astros (White Sox vs. Astros, 5:00 p.m.)
- Alvarez led all qualified hitters with a .316 average, a .604 slugging percentage and a 1.036 OPS while hitting 42 home runs and 34 doubles. He also owns a .944 OPS across 60 playoff games.
- Sean Burke represents the softest arm Houston faces all series.
- Alvarez entered the final Sunday hitting .400 with four homers and a 1.300 OPS over his last 11 games.
Ben Rice, Yankees (Red Sox vs. Yankees, 8:00 p.m.)
- Rice hit 41 home runs with an .897 OPS, and he now anchors the lineup because Aaron Judge missed the Wild Card roster.
- Sonny Gray attacks the zone, and Rice drives mistakes over the plate to his pull side.
- The short porch in the Bronx turns his normal flyout into a souvenir.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (Cubs vs. Padres, 10:00 p.m.)
- Chicago's MVP center fielder cranked 45 homers, swiped 41 bags and delivered a .945 OPS.
- His nine leadoff home runs rank third in MLB, so he threatens on the game's first pitch.
- Chicago leads MLB in OPS and leads the NL with 218 home runs, which stresses Pivetta immediately.
How I Value Top Projected Home Run Hitters
Here are a few guidelines I follow when looking at Polymarket for home run predictions today to trade:
- I value handedness above all else. I start with hitters who face the opposite hand.
- Recent form matters over season totals. September barrels matter more than April ones.
- Afternoon games in Atlanta and night games in the Bronx reward pull power. Petco Park suppresses it, so I trim my stake there.
- I pass on any contract that drifts above fair value after news breaks, and I take profit on live moves rather than riding every position to the last out.
Trade MLB Home Run Picks With Polymarket Promo Code ACTION
Sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION and deposit $10 or more into your account to receive $50 in bonuses. Use that extra bankroll to cover all four games on the card today:
Register with one of the top MLB prediction market promos now by following these five steps:
- Download the Polymarket app through our Action Network-provided link.
- Enter your name, address and required personal identifying information.
- Enter code ACTION during registration, not afterward.
- Complete identity and location verification.
- Deposit $10 and receive your $25 bonus once the deposit clears.
This $50 Polymarket sign up bonus only applies during registration, so enter our code before you fund your account. Register before the 2:00 p.m. ET first pitch in Atlanta and put your bonus straight onto your home run predictions today.
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
