As you may have read in my previous Survivor Kalshi article, Survivor 51 markets have been noticeably absent from the likes of Kalshi, Polymarket, and other top prediction markets.
Considering the popularity of Survivor 50 on Kalshi, this may seem bizarre, yet there's more to this story than meets the eye.
What's more, Survivor isn't the only Kalshi reality TV prediction market to suffer this fate, as fan hoping to buy The Traitors US contracts have been lying in wait. In fact, it's a specific type of reality TV show being targeted: fully pre-recorded.
So, what's changed since last week? Read on as we breakdown what's new with reality TV prediction markets. We'll even get into which Kalshi reality TV markets we'd recommend trading on in the meantime!
What's the Latest on Kalshi Survivor 51 Prediction Markets?
With Survivor 51 Episode 2 airing tonight, you may be wondering if there are any updates to the Kalshi Survivor predicament.
Last week, it was a matter of playing wait-and-see based on how Survivor Kalshi markets had been handled in the past. As you may remember, our closest comparable season was actually Survivor 49, and not Survivor 50.
This is simply because Survivor 50 was a returnee season, whereas Survivor 51 has an all-new cast akin to Survivor 49. As such, we wondered if a pattern would cement itself.
Survivor 49 premiered on Sept. 24 (2025) but Kalshi didn't have any markets for it until five days later (Sept. 29). At the time of the last article, it had not yet been five days since the Survivor 51 premiere.
Now, it's been seven days, meaning we can (at least) be sure that Survivor 51 Kalshi markets will not follow the same timeline as Survivor 49 did.
Whether or not Kalshi plans to release Survivor 51 markets at all remains to be seen. It hasn't helped that long time Survivor host Jeff Probst publicly spoke out against prediction markets but Kalshi remains firm in its stance, stating it has done enough due diligence to stop insider trading.
Looking for another reality TV show to trade? Check out our latest Big Brother Season 28 Winner Kalshi live odds:
| 👥 Houseguest | 🏷️ Position | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It Now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Devens | Yes | 51¢ | $186.34 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Drew Campbell | Yes | 34¢ | $281.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Taylor Brown | Yes | 15¢ | $629.20 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Featured Reality TV Prediction Market: Big Brother Season 28 Winner
If you're wondering why there are still Big Brother Season 28 Kalshi markets but not Survivor 51 or The Traitors US: Season 5 markets, it actually comes down to how the show itself is filmed.
Both Survivor and The Traitors US are fully pre-recorded, making them more susceptible to leaks and insider trading like we saw with Survivor 50.
When it comes to Big Brother Season 28, however, eviction (elimination) episodes are specifically aired live. As such, Big Brother Season 28 has insulated itself from leaks, even though most other types of Big Brother episodes are pre-recorded.
Now's the best time to get in on the action, as the Big Brother Season 28 Finale airs this Thursday (October 1) at 8 p.m. ET on both CBS and Paramount+. Look to our Kalshi live odds table below for the latest Big Brother Season 28 Winner projections
Note: Like many prediction markets apps, Kalshi verifies the official results through legitimate sources. In the case of Big Brother Season 28 Winner, the market will be verified by CBS and Paramount+.
As you can see from the Kalshi graph above, Big Brother Season 28 Winner traders are predominantly targeting Rick (Devens) instead of Drew (Campbell) and Taylor (Brown) now that Dee (Valladares) has officially been eliminated.
Kalshi traders are also buying a high volume of second-place contracts giving Drew a 64% chance, with just a 3% chance of him finishing outside the Top-2.
If you've never previously held a Kalshi account, feel free to take advantage of our Kalshi promo code whenever you're ready to get started!
What Is Kalshi?
If you're just getting started with Kalshi, give this video a quick watch and feel free to visit our Kalshi review page. It'll help.
Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which are available in only a handful of states, Kalshi is available across most of the US.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system in which users buy "contracts" (priced between 1 and 99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will occur. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment. Like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
