2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: Betting Against Tua Tagovailoa To Be Second Offensive Player Drafted

2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: Betting Against Tua Tagovailoa To Be Second Offensive Player Drafted article feature image

Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa

2020 NFL Draft Odds: Second Offensive Player Drafted

  • Tua Tagovailoa: -141
  • Mekhi Becton: +750
  • Justin Herbert: +750
  • Tristan Wirfs: +850
  • Jedrick Wills: +1400
  • Andrew Thomas: +1500
  • Jerry Jeudy: +2200
  • Joe Burrow: +2800
  • CeeDee Lamb: +3300
  • Jordan Love: +3300
  • Henry Ruggs III: +4500
  • D’Andre Swift: +12000

Odds as of Friday, March 27, and via PointsBet. Get up to $25 FREE and $250 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.

Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including the prop for second offensive player to be drafted.

Picks to Be Second Offensive Player Drafted

  • Mekhi Becton: +750
  • Tristan Wirfs: +850

Right now, the market assumes that Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be the No. 2 offensive player selected.

Let's consider the avenues through which that could come about.

If LSU quarterback Joe Burrow goes No. 1 overall, Tagovailoa in theory could go No. 2 to the Redskins if they decide to move on from 2019 first-round quarterback Dwayne Haskins. But that's unlikely — the Redskins will probably go with Ohio State edge defender Chase Young.

The Lions could take Tagovailoa at No. 3 as a potential long-term replacement to quarterback Matthew Stafford, or they could trade down and allow teams like the Dolphins at No. 5 or the Chargers at No. 6 to trade up.

But the Lions might not want to trade out of the No. 3 pick, because then they might miss out on Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah — and the Lions desperately need help in their secondary. Last year, the Lions allowed a league-high 503.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game (per AirYards.com).

And the Dolphins and Chargers — despite being in the quarterback market — might be unmotivated to trade up, because it's highly probable that either Tagovailoa or Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert will fall to them.

So even though the market is thinking of No. 3 as the "Tua pick," there's a very real chance he doesn't go in the top three.

If he falls to No. 4, will the Giants take him there? No. They just drafted quarterback Daniel Jones with a top-10 pick last year. Will the Giants trade down and allow another team to draft Tagovailoa at No. 4? Probably not. Giants general manager Dave Gettleman says that the team is open to trading down — but he has never traded down in Round 1.

And if the Dolphins or Chargers don't trade up to No. 3, they're probably not going to trade up to No. 4.

If Tua falls to No. 4, can he still be the second offensive player drafted if doesn't go off the board at that pick? Yes, it's possible. The Giants could easily take Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons. They have a need at the position, and he's arguably the best player available.

And that could allow Tagovailoa to fall to No. 5, where the Dolphins would presumably draft him.

There's a real chance that happens.

I take a "wisdom of the crowds" approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.

And that sequence of events — Burrow No. 1, Young No. 2, Okudah No. 3, Simmons No. 4 and Tagovailoa No. 5 — is what I see in 20% of the drafts.

But what I see far more often — in 60% of the drafts — is this:

  • No. 1: Joe Burrow
  • No. 2: Chase Young
  • No. 3: Jeff Okudah or Isaiah Simmons
  • No. 4: Mekhi Becton or Tristan Wirfs
  • No. 5: Tua Tagovailoa
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Tristan Wirfs

The Giants selected Jones last year, and they need to give their developing quarterback as much support as possible. The Giants have one of the league's best collections of skill players in running back Saquon Barkley, wide receivers Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate and Darius Slayton and tight end Evan Engram, but they could use significant improvement along the offensive line.

Becton and Wirfs are both strong options at tackle and by far the likeliest players to be drafted as the No. 1 offensive lineman.

And that means — even though Tua is the betting favorite — Becton and Wirfs are very live to be the No. 2 offensive player selected in the draft.

PICK: Mekhi Becton +750: One unit. Limit: +500
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

PICK: Tristan Wirfs +850: One unit. Limit: +500
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]

More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks

Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.

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