2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Tristan Wirfs
2020 NFL Draft Odds: First OL Drafted
- Tristan Wirfs: +200
- Mekhi Becton: +200
- Jedrick Wills: +220
- Andrew Thomas: +700
- Joshua Jones: +4000
- Ezra Cleveland: +8000
- Austin Jackson: +8000
- Tyler Biadasz: +10000
- Lloyd Cushenberry: +15000
- Matt Hennessy: +15000
- Cesar Ruiz: +15000
A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.
Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including the prop for first offensive lineman to be drafted.
Picks to Be First OL Drafted
I’m taking a straight-up arbitrage approach to this prop.
If you risk the same amount of money on each player — let’s say one unit — then you’ll break even if Wirfs or Becton wins and profit +0.6 units if Wills wins.
I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.
In almost all of them, Wirfs, Becton and Wills are the three offensive linemen selected first.
Andrew Thomas is a close fourth, and he might offer some theoretical value at +850 (FanDuel), but the hold Wirfs, Becton and Wills collectively have on the top three I believe makes it highly unlikely that Thomas will be the No. 1 offensive lineman off the board.
I’m not an offensive line guru, so to my untrained eye, Wirfs, Becton and Wills all seem somewhat comparable in their overall quality as prospects.
I expect either Wirfs or Becton to be the first lineman drafted — one of them is No. 1 in every draft I’ve surveyed — but it’s almost impossible for me to pick between them, and if I bet on just those two at +200, at best I’ll break even. So including Wills gives me a shot at a profit and a greater chance of locking in the first lineman.
Plus, even though Wills isn’t the No. 1 lineman in any mock, he’s top-two in a few mocks, and he’s actually the No. 1 offensive line prospect at The Draft Network.
Essentially, with this three-player bet, I’m using my exposure to Wirfs and Becton to free roll a position on Wills, under the assumption that the odds are incredibly low that someone other than Wirfs, Becton and Wills will be the No. 1 offensive lineman.
And of course if you think Wills has a good chance to be the No. 1 lineman, you can bet on him unhedged.
PICK: Tristan Wirfs +200: One unit. Limit: +200
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]
PICK: Mekhi Becton +200: One unit. Limit: +200
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]
PICK: Jedrick Wills +260: One unit. Limit: +225
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks
- Total QBs Drafted in Round 1
- How to Bet the Top 3 Picks
- QB Tua Tagovailoa’s Draft Position
- First Wide Receiver to Be Drafted
- First Running Back to Be Drafted
- First Tight End to Be Drafted
Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.