2020 NFL Draft Odds & Prop Picks: First Offensive Lineman to Be Drafted

Credit:

Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Tristan Wirfs

Mar 26, 2020, 01:40 PM EDT

2020 NFL Draft Odds: First OL Drafted

  • Tristan Wirfs: +200
  • Mekhi Becton: +200
  • Jedrick Wills: +220
  • Andrew Thomas: +700
  • Joshua Jones: +4000
  • Ezra Cleveland: +8000
  • Austin Jackson: +8000
  • Tyler Biadasz: +10000
  • Lloyd Cushenberry: +15000
  • Matt Hennessy: +15000
  • Cesar Ruiz: +15000

Odds as of Thursday, March 26, and via BetMGM. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A robust prop market is forming for the 2020 NFL Draft, and that’s great for us.

Last year, I went 54-29 (+17.7 units) on draft props. There’s no guarantee I’ll have similar success this year, but I do like a lot of the props out there, including the prop for first offensive lineman to be drafted.

Picks to Be First OL Drafted

I’m taking a straight-up arbitrage approach to this prop.

If you risk the same amount of money on each player — let’s say one unit — then you’ll break even if Wirfs or Becton wins and profit +0.6 units if Wills wins.

I take a “wisdom of the crowds” approach by surveying as many reputable mock drafts as possible. I find that these drafts, created by mockers with established records of success, collectively give me a good sense of the realistic range of outcomes.

In almost all of them, Wirfs, Becton and Wills are the three offensive linemen selected first.

Andrew Thomas is a close fourth, and he might offer some theoretical value at +850 (FanDuel), but the hold Wirfs, Becton and Wills collectively have on the top three I believe makes it highly unlikely that Thomas will be the No. 1 offensive lineman off the board.

I’m not an offensive line guru, so to my untrained eye, Wirfs, Becton and Wills all seem somewhat comparable in their overall quality as prospects.

Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Mekhi Becton

I expect either Wirfs or Becton to be the first lineman drafted — one of them is No. 1 in every draft I’ve surveyed — but it’s almost impossible for me to pick between them, and if I bet on just those two at +200, at best I’ll break even. So including Wills gives me a shot at a profit and a greater chance of locking in the first lineman.

Plus, even though Wills isn’t the No. 1 lineman in any mock, he’s top-two in a few mocks, and he’s actually the No. 1 offensive line prospect at The Draft Network.

Essentially, with this three-player bet, I’m using my exposure to Wirfs and Becton to free roll a position on Wills, under the assumption that the odds are incredibly low that someone other than Wirfs, Becton and Wills will be the No. 1 offensive lineman.

And of course if you think Wills has a good chance to be the No. 1 lineman, you can bet on him unhedged.

PICK: Tristan Wirfs +200: One unit. Limit: +200
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]

PICK: Mekhi Becton +200: One unit. Limit: +200
[Bet now at BetMGM. NJ only.]

PICK: Jedrick Wills +260: One unit. Limit: +225
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

More 2020 NFL Draft Betting Picks


Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, part of The Action Network.

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