Eagles vs. Panthers Updated Odds, Pick, Prediction: Week 5 Betting Preview, Prop Bet (Oct. 10)
John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Darnold
- The Carolina Panthers host the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon in an NFC battle from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (1 p.m. ET, FOX).
- The Eagles have hung tough in a few losses but find themselves at 1-3, while the Panthers are 3-1 behind an opportunistic defense and a much-improved Sam Darnold at quarterback.
- Get our Eagles vs. Panthers betting pick and full preview below.
Eagles vs. Panthers Odds
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The Eagles (1-3) played the Chiefs well for most of the day, but ultimately saw their efforts fall short in a 42-30 loss. The Panthers (3-1), meanwhile, are coming off a tough 36-28 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys and find themselves tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South heading into Week 5.
After these teams played in high-scoring affairs last week, should we count on the offenses to continue firing on all cylinders in this Week 5 NFC bout? Let’s dig in and find out.
Hurts Off to Strong Start for Eagles
Despite the losing record, quarterback Jalen Hurts has been strong for the Eagles in his first full season as the starting quarterback. Through four games, Hurts has completed 66% of his passes for 1,167 yards, seven touchdowns and just two interceptions, adding 226 yards and an additional touchdown on the ground.
This week, however, Hurts has a tough matchup against a Panthers team that currently ranks fourth amongst all teams with a -15.4% Total DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and fifth with a -8.7% Pass DVOA thus far. Carolina’s run defense isn’t much worse off either, ranking eighth with a -24.4% Rush DVOA through four games.
Hurts will also be without starting right tackle Lane Johnson, who has been ruled out due to a personal issue. Jack Driscoll will fill in during his absence.
Hurts’ top receiving option, DeVonta Smith, projects to have the best matchup of all Eagles receivers. Per Pro Football Focus’ WR/CB Matchup tool, Smith has a 68.2 matchup advantage against his primary defender Rashaan Melvin.
Panthers Offense Performing Well With Darnold
Running back Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) is doubtful to play on Sunday, which means Chuba Hubbard will lead the Panthers backfield for the second week in a row.
Quarterback Sam Darnold has adjusted quite nicely to his new home with the Panthers. Through the first four weeks, Darnold has completed 67.8% of his passes and thrown for 1,189 passing yards. He’s also accounted for 10 total touchdowns — five through the air and five more on the ground. With McCaffrey out over the last two weeks, Darnold has essentially become the de-facto goal line option for the Panthers.
Darnold’s matchup against the Eagles is a good one. He’ll square off against a defense that ranks 30th with a 49.3 Defense rating, according to PFF, 31st in pass coverage and 28th in Pass Rush rating.
That also bodes well for his receiving group, particularly D.J. Moore, who has the best matchup of the bunch with a 68.2 matchup advantage against his projected defenders, per PFF.
The Eagles defense has also been susceptible on the ground, allowing opponents to rush for an average of 150 yards per game against them, the second most in the NFL. That should help ease the burden on Hubbard, who has played well in McCaffrey’s absence, averaging 4.5 yards per carry since taking over RB1 duties in Week 3.
With McCaffrey heading towards another missed game, it’s likely we’ll see the Panthers lean on Darnold and the passing game more than they would on a typical Sunday.
Given the matchup, Darnold should see his skill players open all day against this porous Eagles secondary. While Hurts and the Eagles have a tougher matchup, I expect them to be able to do enough to keep this one close.
Through four weeks so far, Darnold is averaging 36.5 pass attempts per game. During that time, his passing yardage totals are as follows: 279, 305, 304 and 301.
If the Eagles can hold up their end of the bargain, the projected game script should allow for Darnold to cruise past 270 passing yards here yet again.
As such, I’m taking the over on Darnold’s yardage total here. It currently sits at 265.5 yards, but I would play it all the way up to 275 yards if the line moves before kickoff.
Pick: Darnold Over 265.5 passing yards (-114) at FanDuel | Play to 275