Gardner Minshew Player Prop Pick for Colts vs Texans in NFL Week 18

Gardner Minshew Player Prop Pick for Colts vs Texans in NFL Week 18 article feature image

(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images). Pictured: Gardner Minshew.

Saturday, Jan 6
8:15pm ET
Gardner Minshew Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-111)

It's a win-and-in scenario between the AFC South rivals as the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans battle tonight at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew has done a solid job as a backup and will likely be tested more given the matchup. The Colts will face off against an impressive Texans rush defense that boasts the second-best run-stop win rate (35%) and the fewest yards before contact per attempt (0.77).

Since Week 10, Houston hasn't allowed an opposing running back to exceed 70 rushing yards – likely forcing the Colts into passing plays to move the chains.

Over the past six weeks, Minshew has averaged 35 pass attempts per game, surpassing that number in four out of his last six games. One of the two times he fell short was against the Steelers, a game the Colts won by a considerable margin and consequently ran the ball 34 times. The other instance was against the Raiders, a game in which Jonathan Taylor excelled with 96 yards. For tonight's game, Taylor faces a more formidable opponent with EDGE Will Anderson in action (who boasts a 10.8% run stop rate per PFF), and his rushing yards line is set at 68.5.

Moreover, recent quarterbacks have all found success against the Texans secondary, with Houston ranking 23rd in DVOA versus the pass. Three of the last four quarterbacks to face the Texans — Joe Flacco (44), Zach Wilson (36) and Trevor Lawrence (38) — have all gone over their props.

In a close game and potentially positive game script, look for Minshew to lean on the passing game to find success against a stout Texans front seven.

Pick: Gardner Minshew Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-111)

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