Joe Burrow Player Prop: Dolphins vs Bengals Thursday Night Football Pick
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Burrow.
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Joe Burrow Passing Yards & Bengals Moneyline
|Prop||Over 225+ Passing Yards and Bengals to Win (-111)|
|Matchup||Dolphins vs. Bengals|
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
The 3-0 Dolphins travel to Cincinnati to face the 1-2 Bengals in what should be an exciting Thursday Night Football game. Both teams find themselves on opposite trajectories. While the Dolphins have been outperforming their expectations in two emotional victories, the Bengals are below .500 and have lost to Cooper Rush and Mitch Trubisky.
A significant factor that weighs into a Miami Dolphins let-down spot is their underlying health approaching this matchup. In last Sunday’s game vs. the Bills, their defense was on the field for 90 plays. Buffalo's 34:29 time of possession ranked first as opposed to Miami’s 32nd-ranked 19:20 time of possession.
According to Team Rankings, this was the biggest and most extreme difference in time of possession among all teams in Week 2. Additionally, QB Tua Tagovailoa, LT Terron Armstead, and WR Jaylen Waddle showed up on the injury report and may not be 100% tonight.
I am pairing a Bengals win with a lowered version of Burrow’s passing yards because of the Bengals' inability to establish the run game. The Bengals trail the Bills and Chargers as Football Outsiders’ 29th worst rush offense DVOA through Week 3. Joe Mixon is only averaging a measly 2.8 yards per carry, and his offensive line is not helping him out.
This has resulted in relying more on the passing game and emphasizing the Bengals' second-highest Situation-Neutral Pass Rate (67%) among all teams.
The Dolphins are still without stud CB Byron Jones, and their secondary has suffered by seeing a Pass DVOA of 34.2%, ranking 29th among all teams. Past quarterbacks Lamar Jackson (318) and Josh Allen (400) have easily exceeded the 225+ Passing Yards line.
Despite the record deficiency between both teams, oddsmakers are still putting the Dolphins as underdogs, which is a very telling sign to me. Ultimately, I see Burrow and the Bengals playing with more sense of urgency at home than the Dolphins. Burrow reached 225+ passing yards in seven of 11 wins since 2021, making this highly correlated and my favorite prop to target in tonight’s game.
I would also play this at 230+ passing yards, which is available on other books.