Chargers vs Packers Prediction, Odds, Pick | NFL Week 11 Bets
Chargers vs. Packers odds have Los Angeles as a 3-point home favorite with a game total of 44 at most sportsbooks for NFL Week 11. There are underlying stats for Green Bay that factor into my Chargers vs. Packers prediction on the over/under.
It has been an up-and-down season for the Chargers. They have yet to win or lose more than two games in a row. They have pulled off clutch wins — like against the Jets on Monday Night Football — but they continue to lose winnable games, most recently to the Lions despite a Herculean effort from Justin Herbert. Meanwhile, Jordan Love and the Packers have had a disappointing season and face an uphill battle to playoff contention in the NFC.
Let's dive into this NFL Week 11 betting preview and make a Chargers vs. Packers prediction.
Chargers vs Packers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 11
Chargers vs Packers Prediction
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The Chargers have massive issues on the defensive side of the ball. The only teams that have failed to score at least 20 points against them were the Raiders (quarterbacked by Aidan O’Connell in his first career start), the Bears (Tyson Bagent in his second career start) and the Jets (Zach Wilson).
The Bolts rank 27th in defensive DVOA and are 24th or worse against both the run and the pass. Those numbers are also slightly ballooned by facing bad quarterbacks — though to be fair they have also faced a couple of elite offenses.
Offensively, it is once again Justin Herbert fighting to win games for L.A. He is doing everything in his power, like he did against the Lions last week, but his defense just can’t help him out.
L.A.'s passing attack has been elite and ranks seventh in DVOA. However, the rush offense is just 22nd in DVOA. That can be partially attributed to Austin Ekeler missing a few weeks, but there have also been several games this season where Ekeler has been much more effective as a receiver than as a rusher.
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For Green Bay, it has not been an ideal start to the Jordan Love era — that being said, he might be a bit underrated at this point.
Love was dismissed quickly by many early after a slow start, but in reality, he is tied for 18th in CPOE+EPA composite along with Derek Carr and Deshaun Watson. That isn’t brilliant company, but it is good enough to have the Packers at 13th in pass offense DVOA.
Love has also started to play better of late. Over the last four weeks, Love is 15th in CPOE+EPA composite. That puts him in solid company, between Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence. This can be partially attributed to the fact that the Packers are finally healthy. They have their full complement of weapons and Love is starting to look much more comfortable as a result.
He should be able to throw effectively against a bad Chargers secondary. Los Angeles is tied for last in opponent yards per pass attempt at 7.5. That should open up the deep ball for Love, which was a major strength of his coming out of college. It's possible the Chargers wake up Christian Watson from his season-long slumber.
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Chargers vs. Packers
Betting Picks & Predictions
This line of Chargers -3 is about right, in my opinion. If the Packers were catching a hook of +3.5 it could potentially be worth a bet, but the best way to approach this game is by betting the over.
As stated earlier, the Chargers basically give away points to teams that aren't starting a low-level quarterback. However, they have put up at least 20 points of offense in every game excluding their games against Dallas and Kansas City.
This game sets up for a lot of passing with the potential of a lot of explosive plays. Bet the over at 43.5 and play up to 45.
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