The New Orleans Saints (2-10) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) face off in NFL Week 14. Kickoff is set for in 1 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. Saints vs Bucs will broadcast live on CBS.
The Buccaneers are favored by -7.5 on the spread over the Saints, with the over/under set at 41.5 total points. The Buccaneers are -400 moneyline favorites while Saints the are +310 underdogs.
Let's get into my Saints vs Bucs prediction for today's NFC South meeting.
Saints vs Bucs Predictions & Picks
- Saints vs Buccaneers pick: Under 42
My Saints vs Buccaneers best bet is the game total under 42. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Saints vs Bucs Odds
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
Saints vs Bucs Week 14 Preview
When these teams met in Week 8, the Saints stuffed the Buccaneers' ground game, surrendering just 3.0 yards per rush. In fact, at the game’s end, the Saints actually averaged 3.9 yards per play for the game to the Bucs’ 3.8 despite losing the game by 20 points.
If the Saints can force the Bucs into 3rd downs, they have been the 9th-best team in the league on short-yardage situations (with 1-2 yards to go) when facing the run.
The Saints’ adjusted line yards on offense sits at 4.0 per rush, 28th league-wide. This will obviously lead to Tyler Shough having to deal with pressure on 2nd and 3rd downs when it’s clear they need to pass to move the chains.
The Buccaneers offense is beginning to get healthier, but we are not quite there yet, and most importantly, Baker Mayfield’s shoulder injury is affecting the playcalling. Tampa Bay opted to run the ball at 10% above expectation on 1st down last week, which made the offense quite predictable.
Arizona’s defense limited the Bucs to 4.9 yards per play as Tampa struggled to find success on the ground. The Bucs rushed for just five first downs throughout the game and averaged 3.5 yards per carry.
One issue with the Bucs' low success rate on 1st down is that it constantly forces Mayfield into having to convert on 3rd down — 51% of Tampa Bay’s 1st and 10s end up with its offense getting to 3rd down, which ranks 28th in the NFL.
This doesn’t seem to be the day to buck this trend against a Saints defense that continues to play the run pretty well. Despite facing a 51% run rate, the 2nd-highest mark league-wide due to their propensity to trail in games, the Saints have allowed a modest 4.2 yards per carry to running backs.
This is a long-winded way of saying that the Bucs will not be able to sustain drives if they continue their conservative nature. However, if they lean more on Mayfield in the passing game, I am not so sure they will light up the scoreboard that way, either. Mayfield has not cleared 7.0 yards per pass attempt since Week 6 and the tape has matched his lack of production.
Mayfield’s counterpart, Tyler Shough, may also struggle against a blitz-heavy Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs rank 5th in blitz rate and 6th in pressure rate this season, and Shough has never dealt with either very well, even dating back to college.
Shough has completed just 46% of his passes against the blitz and his yards per attempt decrease significantly under pressure. His passer rating when kept clean is a respectable 92.8, but when pressured, it plummets down to 54.1.
The Bucs continue to have one of the best rush defenses in football, ranking 3rd in the NFL in adjusted line yards per rush.
Saints vs Bucs Prediction, Betting Analysis
Sometimes things can be so simple that you can begin to feel as if it is time to take the contrarian route. This isn’t the spot to do so.
If you bet the under in every game involving the Saints, you haven’t suffered a loss since Week 4.
These are two teams familiar with one another and each defense has a matchup advantage that should result in a bevy of punts in another low-scoring NFC South affair.
Pick: Under 42
Spread
I don't see value in the spread today.
Moneyline
I'm also not betting on either side of the moneyline.
Saints vs Buccaneers Over/Under Prediction
As mentioned, I expect a low-scoring game in Tampa.
Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
Saints vs Bucs Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. |
| Date: | Sunday, Sun. 7 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | CBS |
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