The first NFL week of the 2026 season is officially in the books!
NFL Week 1 always feels like an early Christmas, with 16 games and 32 new presents of team data to unwrap and enjoy.
There's nothing quite like the time-honored tradition of overreacting to everything we saw on opening week, so let's overreact to one thing each from all 16 games, then reach an early verdict on whether that overreaction is a real or not real takeaway from Week 1.
Along the way, we'll add to our futures portfolio with six new bets.
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NFL Week 1 Overreactions
Chiefs 31, Broncos 10
Overreaction: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are back!!
Kansas City absolutely crushed Denver. The Broncos won 15 games last year, ran it back, and everyone drafted them as a unanimous top-five team.
That never made sense to me.
The Chiefs are the real top-five team, and Denver is in big trouble with a possibly fraudulent defense and Davis Webb’s offense.
This wasn't even a Patrick Mahomes masterclass — the Chiefs just dominated the trenches and unveiled an entirely new offense. They ran Duo, stayed under center, and let Kenneth Walker explode for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith completely overwhelmed a supposedly elite Broncos run defense.
The Chiefs doubled up Denver's yardage, averaging almost six yards per play while holding Bo Nix to four sacks, three fumbles, and an embarrassingly low aDOT.
I am buying Creed Humphrey for Protector of the Year at 3% on Kalshi to add to my awards portfolio.
Verdict: REAL
Seahawks 13, Patriots 10
Overreaction: Regression is already coming hard for both Super Bowl teams!!
This was a rusty, ugly, slow Week 1 game that felt a lot like their Super Bowl matchup.
Seattle basically had no offense until 18 minutes were left, and New England would have won if Drake Maye didn't throw three bad interceptions — including a back-breaker with 21 seconds left in field-goal range.
But sometimes regression simply means injuries.
Sam Darnold's hip injury is an unknown, but Drew Lock is generally around the 35th-to-40th best quarterback by PFF grade, which makes him a perfectly capable backup. Darnold is only around QB20 anyway, so it's not a massive downgrade on paper.
Seattle's schedule also lines up perfectly to weather the storm with Arizona and Washington up next.
A.J. Brown's injury for New England is far more meaningful.
With Brown out, Kayshon Boutte traded and Romeo Doubs MIA, the Patriots drop from a top-eight to bottom-eight receiving corps. That takes them from a fringe top-10 offense to league average, shifting them a full point against the spread.
Maye struggled to pass deep, and the rushing attack was awful (-0.45 EPA/play on a 22% success rate). New England plays Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Buffalo next.
The Patriots are already behind the eight ball and could easily start 1-3.
Verdict: REAL for New England, NOT REAL yet for Seattle
49ers 27, Rams 7
Overreaction: The Rams' dream season is already in huge trouble!!
The 49ers dominated this game from start to finish with a massive 57% to 43% edge in success rate. They should be No. 1 in any power rankings after doing that to the consensus top team.
But the real story was Myles Garrett, who recorded zero tackles, zero pressures, and zero sacks — and now we know why. Garrett heading to IR means he misses at least the next four games against the Giants, Broncos, Eagles, and Bills.
That is an enormous downgrade. A team that relies heavily on its edge rush now has a glaring weakness with Byron Young and Josaiah Stewart trying to fill the void.
This technically counts as a home division loss for the Rams, and the rest of the division is already 1-0. If they drop a few of these upcoming games against top-tier offensive lines without Garrett, they might lose the division and be forced to play road playoff games instead of staying at SoFi.
FTN currently projects the Rams at 9.6 wins — well under their 11.5 total. The dream season is already in some serious jeopardy.
Verdict: VERY REAL
Cardinals 26, Chargers 14
Overreaction: The Chargers might’ve already Chargers’d their season away!!
This wasn't fluky at all.
The Cardinals put up almost 400 yards and outgained Los Angeles by 125 yards.
The Chargers offense looked good until Ladd McConkey got hurt (8.9 YPA passing with him, 3.9 YPA without him). The injury exposed their lack of depth at receiver, and the interior offensive line struggled mightily.
This is a terrible loss for the Chargers. This was supposed to be the easiest game on a really tough schedule, so we have to downgrade them by almost a full win on their season projection.
Mike McDaniel's offense is going to take time. FTN projects the Bolts for 7.4 wins and just a 29% chance to make the playoffs, which is even lower than the Jets and Giants.
I am betting the Chargers to miss the playoffs at -120 on BetMGM.
How about a second crazy bet? I'm putting a 0.25-unit nibble on the Cardinals to win the NFC West at +12500 (Caesars).
Myles Garrett and Sam Darnold are already hurt in that division, and Arizona plays Seattle with Drew Lock this week.
No 1-0 NFL team should ever be priced at 125-1 to win their division.
Verdict: REAL
Eagles 24, Commanders 22
Overreaction: The Eagles' offense is STILL broken!!
The Commanders were probably the better team here. Jayden Daniels passed the eye test, and Daronte Jones called a great game defensively with a high blitz rate that made Philadelphia uncomfortable.
The Eagles won, but it was ugly. They had four scoring drives, and each one relied entirely on a single explosive play (a 46-yard Saquon Barkley run, and passes of 31, 43, and 64 yards).
Outside of those four plays, Philly tallied just 99 yards on 50 plays. That's under two yards per play with an abysmal 34% success rate, including a 3rd-percentile 28% success rate on early downs.
Jalen Hurts had zero designed runs. Barkley rushed 15 times for 41 yards outside of his one explosive burst.
The Sean Mannion offense looks broken, and now Landon Dickerson — their best interior lineman — is heading to IR as Philly's rushing metrics continue to struggle.
Philadelphia was lucky to pull out a win here. I already bet Under 40.5 in their matchup against the Titans next week.
Verdict: REAL
Giants 28, Cowboys 20
Overreaction: Giants Island, worst-to-first 2026!!
Giants Island looks like the real deal, and this is exactly how we drew it up.
John Harbaugh brought over his older Ravens personnel —Patrick Ricard at fullback, Isaiah Likely at tight end — and ran a smash-mouth, ball-control offense.
The Giants converted 9-of-11 third downs, outgained Dallas by 150 yards, and lived in the 99th percentile for success rate while staying ahead of the chains. Jaxson Dart looked steady and in control, making good decisions.
After halftime, the Giants orchestrated touchdown drives of 8:01 and 8:11 minutes to completely kill off the clock. Dallas actually scored touchdowns on all of its second-half possessions — but it only had two!
The Cowboys offense looks fine, but the defense got completely shredded and pushed around by a very basic game plan.
This Giants formula — run the ball, limit possessions, hit a few explosives — looks replicable.
Verdict: REAL
Ravens 41, Colts 23
Overreaction: The Ravens are once again as good as any team in the NFL!!
This wasn't even as close as the 18-point margin suggests.
The Ravens nearly doubled up the Colts in yardage (506 to 251) and averaged 7.9 yards per play to Indy's 4.7. Zay Flowers erupted for 150 yards and a touchdown in the first half alone.
Declan Doyle's offense is legit. Lamar Jackson was under center for 67% of his snaps, the highest rate of his career. That setup perfectly feeds Derrick Henry and opens up the play-action deep passing game.
The Ravens generated eight explosive plays in the first half alone, and they did that while debuting three new interior offensive linemen.
Add in an aggressive Jesse Minter defense, and Baltimore has my full attention. They look as dangerous as any team in the league.
Verdict: REAL
Jaguars 34, Browns 10
Overreaction: Trevor Lawrence and the Jags' second-half breakout last year was legit!!
Trevor Lawrence looked awesome, tossing four touchdowns and dominating every metrics board, and the Jags had a 59% success rate. But let's be honest: this is not a real professional football team they were playing against.
The Browns managed just 65 yards on 23 plays in the first half. Deshaun Watson is beyond washed. This is the equivalent of Alabama scheduling Furman for a season opener.
We learned almost nothing about Jacksonville here.
If anything, this might be a sell-high spot for the Jaguars, who now have to play at Denver, New England, at Cincinnati, and then Philadelphia and Houston back-to-back in London.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Bills 36, Texans 31
Overreaction: Houston’s defense is overrated and beatable!!
This was a coin-flip game in the end, and both teams have plenty to feel good about.
Josh Allen nearly threw a game-losing interception, then hit the same player on the very next play for the go-ahead score. Houston was driving with a chance to win inside the 25-yard line before a strip-sack ended it with nine seconds left.
Buffalo's 7.9 yards per play was shocking, entirely driven by explosives. The Bills generated a 21% explosive play rate (nine passes, two runs), the most ever allowed by a DeMeco Ryans defense.
Buffalo lived in heavy 13-personnel, using Dalton Kincaid (5 catches, 130 yards) essentially as a split-out wide receiver to exploit Houston's uncharacteristic zone coverage and rip the stout defense apart.
But I'm not overreacting.
Houston was a hair away on several of these plays, and Josh Allen is just the best player in the world doing 1-of-1 things. Houston's defense will be just fine against mere mortals.
On the flip side, the Texans offense looked pretty good. They gained almost as many yards as Buffalo, posted a 48% to 41% success rate edge, and orchestrated three long, confident touchdown drives including a couple fourth-down conversions with a competent run game.
This is a great chance to buy low on Houston and sell a bit high on Jacksonville.
I am backing the Texans to win the AFC South at 41% (+144) on Kalshi.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Vikings 39, Packers 22
Overreaction: That Green Bay last place division ticket is looking spicy!!
This was the weirdest game of the weekend.
Kyler Murray left in the first quarter with a concussion, and the Vikings capitalized on five chaotic minutes late to blow the doors open.
But if you look at the underlying metrics, they tell a completely different story. The Packers nearly doubled Minnesota's yardage (419 to 239), won the yards-per-play battle (6.3 to 3.9), and dominated early down success rate (43% to 25%).
Green Bay just shot themselves in the foot repeatedly with 12 penalties for 98 yards, a 1-for-4 red-zone conversion rate, two turnovers on downs, and two late turnovers at the worst time late.
Green Bay can't run the ball with a bad offensive line and no Josh Jacobs, which forces Jordan Love to throw constantly (11.3 aDOT).
Meanwhile, Brian Flores’ defense was blitzing at an absurd 82% rate — that is a cry for help to mask their talent deficiencies, not a sustainable strategy.
Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love should be fine, especially with the Jets and Falcons up next.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Bears 59, Panthers 37
Overreaction: Bet every Bears over until proven otherwise!!
We had a Scorigami and the highest-scoring Week 1 game in NFL history.
The Bears rushed for six touchdowns — the first team to do that in an opener since the 1922 Canton Bulldogs. They scored 14+ points in every quarter, and the teams combined to go 8-for-8 in the red zone with over 1,000 yards of offense.
Ben Johnson's offense is clearly amazing, but I am very worried about Chicago futures.
Carolina was my favorite Under win total entering the year, yet the Bears defense allowed at least one touchdown in every quarter. It is unforgivable to give up 361 yards and three touchdowns to Bryce Young, including 138 yards and two scores to Jalen Coker.
This is a fun team for fantasy football and Overs, but that's not a winning formula for the playoffs.
Verdict: REAL
Lions 31, Saints 30
Overreaction: The Saints totally blew it, right after the Lions totally blew it!!
This was just two mostly average teams playing to a coin-flip result.
The Lions took a fake 21-0 lead early in the third quarter after back-to-back New Orleans turnovers. From there, the Saints dominated, rattling off drives of 79, 54, 66, 75, and 80 yards.
Tyler Shough took five sacks and threw two interceptions on a wild 56 pass attempts.
New Orleans outgained Detroit by 100 yards and was the slightly better team, but turnovers cost them.
There isn't much to learn here other than Detroit has to turn around on a short week to play Thursday Night Football against Buffalo after going to overtime.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Bengals 33, Buccaneers 27
Overreaction: The Bengals FINALLY look like a complete team & real contenders!!
This is the overreaction game of the week.
The Buccaneers were the better team and incredibly unlucky to lose. Post-game win expectancy models had Tampa Bay as high as 65% to win.
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This game came down to insane, 0th-percentile fumble luck. Tampa Bay fumbled four times, and Cincinnati recovered all four. Three of those fumbles came on consecutive Bucs drives — including one in the red zone, and another returned for a touchdown.
Those fumbles equated to -22 EPA, costing Tampa Bay three full touchdowns of value and a massive 33% chunk of win probability.
The Buccaneers' offense actually never got stopped. They didn't punt a single time. Cincinnati's offense, meanwhile, was the same old Bengals.
All that offseason talk about getting under center was a lie — the Bengals threw five passes under center for just 29 yards. Joe Burrow was fine, but this wasn't an offensive renaissance, and I'm not ready to call Cincinnati's defense improved just because it fell on some fumbles.
I'm doubling down on my favorite preseason bet and taking the Bucs to win the NFC South at 34% on Polymarket. They get the Browns' league-worst offensive line next week so it's a great buy low spot to add to your position or jump in fresh.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Jets 23, Titans 10
Overreaction: The Jets can snag a wild card berth!!
This was a comfortable, professional road win for the Jets — but this result was mostly about how pathetic the Titans offense is.
Before a 65-yard garbage-time touchdown drive, Tennessee accumulated just 130 yards all game on 40 plays (3.25 yards per play) with an anemic six first downs.
Cam Ward had under 100 passing yards while completing less than half his attempts before that drive, and Brian Daboll's coaching was baffling, calling 40 passes to 10 runs with a 78% shotgun rate on early downs.
The unholy tridumberate of coaches strikes again.
Get ready for Unders and Team Total Unders for Tennessee.
Verdict: NOT REAL
Steelers 20, Falcons 13
Overreaction: Mike Tomlin or not, this is just the same old Steelers!!
When people use the phrase "no offense but," they are talking about this game.
Neither team reached 270 total yards. They combined for a 37% and 34% success rate, with both offenses sitting in the deep negatives for EPA per play.
The Steelers scored their touchdowns on short fields following a turnover and a T.J. Watt pick-six.
The Falcons get a slight pass because they were starting third-string QB Cooper Rush, but Aaron Rodgers looked terrible running Mike McCarthy's offense.
The best play in this game was punting the ball so your defense could get back on the field.
Same old Steelers.
Verdict: REAL
Raiders 27, Dolphins 13
Overreaction: The Dolphins are already in the Fish Tank!!
This was a truly abysmal debut for Jeff Hafley's coaching staff and Malik Willis.
Miami's offensive game plan made zero sense. Willis spent just 28% of his snaps under center (second-lowest in the league) on early downs, operated out of the pistol at the second-highest rate, and posted an 11.4 aDOT.
That is a one-off gimmick offense, not a plan you install over an entire offseason.
The Dolphins called 40 passes to just 15 runs, allowing Willis to take five sacks against my 31st-ranked preseason defense.
I've seen enough. It already looks like it could be a very long season in Miami.
Verdict: REAL
Brandon's Futures Bets Made in This Article
- Chargers to miss the playoffs: -120 (BetMGM)
- Texans to win the AFC South: 41% (Kalshi)
- Buccaneers to win the NFC South: 34% (Polymarket)
- Rueben Bain Jr., Defensive Rookie of the Year: 10% (Kalshi)
- Creed Humphrey, Protector of the Year: 3% (Kalshi)
- Cardinals to win the NFC West: +12500 (Caesars)
