Kalshi is the popular CFTC-regulated prediction market platform where traders can speculate on real-world events, including sports outcomes.
This year's NFL Combine presents a unique opportunity for prediction market enthusiasts, as measurable athletic performance metrics like the 40-yard dash create potential trading opportunities on Kalshi NFL Combine markets.
Sign up using the Kalshi promo code and stay updated on potential NFL combine markets.
Navigating the Wild West of NFL Combine Markets
We're entering uncharted territory with NFL Combine Kalshi markets. As of now, these markets aren't live yet on the platform. For now, this Action Network article explores what might be tradable based on Kalshi's typical event structures and combine performance data.
One major uncertainty: how will Kalshi handle the NFL's occasional practice of issuing "corrected" times after initial stopwatch readings?
This discrepancy between official and adjusted times could significantly impact contract resolution, and until Kalshi publishes its specific rules, traders won't know whether contracts settle on initial times or corrected figures.
The stakes are substantial. NFL Combine prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to allow trading on specific player performances—fastest 40-yard dash time overall, positional speed records, and performance thresholds that influence draft stock.
These markets leverage collective trader insights on prospects' physical metrics, which often influence draft position more heavily than college game film.
Interestingly, 40-yard dash times show only slight correlation to actual NFL success, yet they remain the most popular prediction metric.
Key markets likely include: fastest overall 40-yard dash, fastest by position (cornerbacks, wide receivers, and running backs typically dominate speed discussions), and Over/Under measurements on specific prospects.
A top combine performance can dramatically impact a player's draft value—sometimes creating a $20 million swing in guaranteed contract money between a top-5 pick and a late-first-rounder.
Speedsters like Isaiah Bond in 2025 exemplified how explosive combine showings boost draft stock, making them likely popular prediction market trades.
What Kalshi NFL Combine Contracts Might Look Like
Based on Kalshi's typical binary event structure, combine markets would likely feature "Yes/No" propositions on specific thresholds.
Historical examples include: "Will anyone break the 40-yard dash record of 4.22 seconds at the Combine?" and "Will anyone eclipse 38.5 reps on the bench press?"
Traders buy "Yes" shares if they believe the event will occur or "No" shares if they think it won't, with shares settling at $1 if correct or $0 if wrong.
The 4.22-second barrier is particularly challenging—John Ross set that mark in 2017, and no prospect has matched it since despite nearly a decade of elite athletes attempting.
The 38.5 bench press threshold represents exceptional upper-body strength, typically achieved by only one or two prospects per combine, usually offensive or defensive linemen.
The Seven Core Drills: What You Possibly Can Trade
The NFL Combine features seven primary physical drills that test the athletic foundation every NFL prospect needs:
- The 40-yard dash measures pure speed and acceleration—it's the marquee event and typically generates the most prediction market volume.
- The bench press evaluates upper body strength through maximum repetitions at 225 pounds, particularly relevant for offensive and defensive linemen.
- The vertical jump measures lower-body explosiveness and leaping ability, crucial for receivers, defensive backs, and pass rushers.
- The broad jump tests horizontal power and explosion, offering another data point on lower-body strength.
- Agility drills include the 3-cone drill (also called the L-drill), which tests change-of-direction speed and hip fluidity around corners—critical for positions requiring lateral movement.
- The 20-yard shuttle (5-10-5 drill) measures lateral quickness and the ability to plant and explode in the opposite direction. The 60-yard shuttle tests both agility and conditioning over a longer distance.
Beyond these seven standardized tests, prospects perform position-specific drills: quarterbacks throw routes, defensive ends demonstrate pass-rush moves, and wide receivers run catching drills.
Players also undergo measurements (height, weight, hand size, arm length) and comprehensive medical and psychological evaluations, including cognitive testing that replaced the traditional Wonderlic exam.
2026 NFL Combine Schedule: When to Trade What
The 2026 NFL Scouting Combine runs from Thursday, February 26, through Sunday, March 1, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The four-day event groups positions together, meaning traders will need to track specific days for the athletes they're interested in.
- Day 1 (February 26): Defensive linemen and linebackers take the field. Expect trading opportunities on edge rushers' 40-yard dashes (mid-4.6 to high-4.7 range typically), linebacker agility drills, and defensive tackle bench press dominance—big men pushing 225 pounds for 30+ reps often make headlines.
- Day 2 (February 27): Defensive backs and tight ends work out. This is prime territory for 40-yard dash markets, as cornerbacks and safeties regularly post the fastest times of the entire combine (sub-4.4 seconds). Tight ends offer interesting versatility metrics, combining size with speed.
- Day 3 (February 28): The showcase day features quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs. Wide receivers typically produce blazing 40 times (4.3s are common among top prospects), while running backs demonstrate explosion in the vertical and broad jumps. Quarterback drills are less quantifiable but highly scrutinized.
- Day 4 (March 1): Offensive linemen close out the combine. While their 40 times won't break records, the bench press becomes crucial—scouts want to see power and endurance in the trenches.
All combine workouts are televised on NFL Network, providing real-time transparency for traders.
Throughout the four days, prospects also conduct formal interviews with teams and complete medical examinations that sometimes leak into public reporting, potentially moving markets if injury concerns surface.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
