Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 8.
NFL Interception Props for Week 8
- Joe Flacco to Throw an Interception (-108, DraftKings)
- Bo Nix to Throw an Interception (+110, DraftKings)
Joe Flacco to Throw an Interception (-108)
This is one of those bets where you immediately see the odds and go, “Wait, what?”
That’s right, Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco is only -108 to throw an interception against the lowly Jets.
In seven games played this season between Cincinnati and Cleveland, Flacco’s INT odds each week were at -170 or higher. The reason why we're getting -108 is that the Jets' defense has been brutal defending the pass, and they are one of two teams yet to record an interception this season (San Francisco is the other).
Still, it doesn’t faze me that the Jets will be without cornerback Sauce Gardner for this game because the team can still get some pressure, and they love to blitz the QB as they do at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.
Flacco has three interceptions this season. When being blitzed, he sees his completion percentage drop off a cliff in that spot (50.1%).
I still believe Flacco will have some success throwing the ball because he’s got premier wide receivers on his team, but the odds on this still should be closer to -130 given the interception pedigree of Flacco.
Since the 2023 season, when he was with Cleveland, Flacco has appeared in or started 19 games, and he’s thrown an interception in 14 of them.
Bo Nix to Throw an Interception (+110)
Coming off his best game of the season in a miraculous comeback vs the Giants, I can’t think of a better time to fade Broncos QB Bo Nix and take him to throw an interception.
The second-year QB can be sporadic and streaky, and I think this is the week where he comes back to Earth and tosses an INT vs the Cowboys.
Look, I’m not going to pretend the Cowboys' pass defense isn’t brutal. They allow a ton of completions and a lot of passing touchdowns, but opposing teams know that too and will keep throwing against them in hopes of generating explosive plays.
This is where I think the Cowboys may get a freebie from Nix, because Dallas gets a lot of pressure and ranks first in the NFL in pressure rate per dropback (33%).
Since the start of last season, Nix has seen his turnover-worthy-play rate go up and his completion percentage drop when seeing pressure from opposing defenses.
Another weird factor is that Nix's INT rate has increased slightly when he plays at home. Of his 16 career interceptions, 11 have come on his own ground.
Given that the Cowboys offense should be able to put up points against any defense, the Broncos will likely have to keep throwing instead of just running the ball each series, as I expect both teams to be in a relatively neutral game script, which means more pass attempts.
