NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Spreads & Totals To Bet Based On Our Model
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Titans at Jaguars
The betting market is entirely behind the 8-4 Titans vs. the 1-11 Jaguars — 67% of the tickets and 75% of the money are on Tennessee as of writing (go to our public betting data), but Jacksonville offers sneaky value.
For similar reasons I liked the Jets at +7.5 last week, the Titans’ poor defense allows the potential for Jaguars a back-door cover. Tennesse’s pass defense ranks 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and was just torched by Baker Mayfield for 334 yards and four touchdowns.
Mike Glennon is the third quarterback to start for the Jags this season. They’ve gone 2-0 against the spread in his starts, keeping games close against the Browns (27-25) and Vikings (27-24). There have been 33 quarterbacks to attempt 20 or more passes over the past two weeks, and among them, Glennon ranks 16th in success rate and 18th in expected points added per attempt. I wouldn’t say that Glennon gives the Jaguars the best chance to win, but he certainly gives them the best opportunity to cover the spread.
Jake Luton ranked 33rd in success rate and 34th in expected points added per attempt in his three starts. If the Jags were in proper tank mode, they would likely be starting him.
The Jags can keep this close, but even if they trail by 10 or more points, the Titans’ pass defense is so shaky that even a mediocre Jaguars offense would be a serious back-door threat. I would not bet this past +7.5 (shop real-time odds).
Vikings at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers lost back-to-back games, 27-24, heading into their Week 13 bye. The time off allowed Tom Brady to continue to build chemistry with his offense and they should come out firing here.
The Bucs have attempted the fourth-most passes of 20 or more yards while the Vikings have allowed the third-highest success rate on pass attempts of 20 or more yards. Brady should be able to have more success on deep shots against the Vikings.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings run the ball at the sixth-highest rate, but the Bucs’ run defense ranks first in DVOA and should slow down the rushing attack.
This matchup plays into the Bucs’ favor on both sides of the ball — I like taking them at -6.5 before the number moves to 7.
Chiefs at Dolphins
The betting market is expecting a shootout between these teams — 69% of the tickets and 90% of the money has poured in on the over, pushing the total from its 48.5 open to 51.5 as of Saturday afternoon. My projection, however, is right in line with that opener.
This is a matchup of run funnel defenses: Kansas City ranks 13th vs. the pass compared to 30th vs. the run in DVOA while Miami ranks sixth vs. the pass and 24th vs. the run. The Dolphins will try to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field with a run-heavy, ball-control play style — Tua Tagovailoa’s presence under center almost assures this approach, whereas my projected total would be closer to 50.5 if Ryan Fitzpatrick were expected to start.
Especially at the key numbers of 51 and 51.5 available at various books as of writing, this under is worth a bet, though I would take it down to 50.