Sunday Night Football in Week 13 features a primetime showdown between the Denver Broncos and the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md.
- For more Sunday Night Football coverage, check out our Broncos vs. Commanders preview, which includes Stuckey's spread pick for SNF.
For my top Broncos vs. Commanders NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m highlighting Troy Franklin, Jake Moody, and Jeremy McNichols.
Troy Franklin
Less Than 4.5 Receptions
Troy Franklin has put together a stellar campaign and is the Broncos' team-leader in targets, averaging 7.5 per game. However, he has averaged just 4.2 receptions per game, a 56 percent catch rate.
The reason for him only hauling in half of his passes is Bo Nix, who has just a 73 percent on-target throw rate and averages 6.1 bad throws per game.
Unfortunately for Franklin, the more volume he sees, the likelier it is that he'll be the victim of Nix's accuracy issues.
So, even in a great matchup against the Commanders secondary, it's wise to fade Franklin's receptions prop as Nix has not shown he can connect with him at a high volume.
Jake Moody
More Than 5.5 Kicking Points
The Broncos defense is far and away the best unit in this matchup. They have been absolutely dominant, ranking third in points allowed per game, yards allowed per game, and first in touchdowns allowed per game.
That last ranking is key, as Denver is tremendous at stalling drives as the field gets shorter. The result has been great for opposing kickers, with Denver ranking 30th in kicking points allowed per game, and opposing kickers converting field goals at a 92.5 percent rate against them.
Commanders kicker Jake Moody has been dialed in lately, coming off a pair of games where he posted 13 and 14 kicking points, respectively.
When the Commanders string together drives tonight, they are likely to stall Broncos territory, and we only need two field goals for this pick to hit.
Jeremy McNichols
More Than 8.5 Rushing Yards
Lastly, we turn to the overlooked man in the Commanders' backfield, Jeremy McNichols.
McNichols is typically the third-down back in the offense, meaning he's seen plenty of receiving work.
However, over the past two weeks, he has nine total carries, which is double his previous per-game attempts average of 2.2. McNichols has also been efficient, averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
If he gets at least four carries tonight, he will clear this total with ease.
