The Denver Broncos (9-2) and Washington Commanders (3-8) meet in the Week 13 edition of Sunday Night Football on November 30. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Broncos are favored by -5.5 on the spread over the Commanders, with the over/under set at 43.5 points. The Broncos are -260 moneyline favorites while the Commanders are +210 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Broncos vs Commanders prediction.
Broncos vs Commanders Prediction
- Broncos vs Commanders pick: Commanders +6 or better
My Broncos vs Commanders best bet is the Commanders to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Broncos vs Commanders Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
Broncos vs Commanders Sunday Night Football Preview
Heading into this weekend, the Broncos held the No. 2 overall seed in the AFC Playoff picture, trailing the Patriots (who have already had their bye) by a half-game.
However, with a win on Sunday night, the Broncos would actually jump into the No. 1 overall spot and get one step closer to the highly coveted first-round bye that comes with home-field advantage throughout.
While Denver will almost certainly enjoy a return trip to the postseason, the same can't be said of the Commanders, who come into this week with a 3-8 record and just one loss away from clinching their season win total under.
Following a dream season in which rookie Jayden Daniels led Washington to the NFC Championship Game, it's been a nightmare season for Dan Quinn's bunch, who have been ravaged by injuries.
They once again will be without Daniels under center and remain shorthanded on the defensive side of the ball.
So, can the Broncos extend their league-leading current win streak to nine games prior to their bye week and maintain a healthy lead in the AFC West? Let's take a closer look.
It's not going to be an easy task for the Commanders against one of the league's top defenses that will also welcome back the services of stud cornerback Patrick Surtain II from injury.
The reigning DPOY can not only lock down one side of the field, but he also provides defensive coordinator Vance Joseph with maximum flexibility and the ability to be super aggressive with a front that can generate pressure at an elite level.
Denver's edge rushers will certainly look to exploit rookie right tackle Josh Conerly Jr., who has really struggled in pass protection. That's certainly a matchup to watch throughout the game.
Fortunately for Washington, it does look like Terry McClaurin will return from injury on the outside and Deebo Samuel should look much healthier following the bye week. And while the Commanders will miss Daniels, Marcus Mariota has been very productive during his time in our nation's capital as one of the league's best backups.
In fact, out of 45 quarterbacks with at least 250 snaps over the past two seasons, Mariota ranks third in EPA+CPOE composite, trailing only Josh Allen and Jared Goff. It's not a huge sample size (253 snaps) and he's faced some poor defenses, but Mariota can certainly run an NFL offense.
On the other side of the ball, it's been a struggle all season for the Washington defense, which ranks 30th in EPA per Play allowed. And that doesn't paint the entire bleak picture, considering the Commanders have suffered a plethora of injuries along the defensive line and in the secondary.
Since Week 7, they rank dead last in EPA per Play allowed. However, if you're looking for a silver lining, Dan Quinn did take over defensive playcalling ahead of their game overseas against the Dolphins, where they did look much more competent. I think we can expect more of the same coming out of the break with more zone looks and a simplified approach against a still very inconsistent Broncos offense.
The polarizing Bo Nix has had some very clutch moments in the fourth quarter this season, which he deserves a ton of credit for. However, on a down-to-down basis, he has struggled mightily.
Just looking at the first three quarters, Nix ranks 29th in Success Rate (41.2%) out of 32 quarterbacks with at least 150 plays — ahead of only Geno Smith, Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward. His accuracy is just not up to par at the moment.
Broncos vs Commanders Prediction, Betting Analysis
Are we at the peak of the market on the Broncos? I'd have to imagine so following their huge win over the Chiefs.
It's possible they are a bit fat and happy. Conversely, we may be at the bottom of the market on the Commanders, who are on the opposite end of the spectrum following six straight losses.
On the surface, this is a classic buy-low, sell-high spot, which always pique my interest in the NFL. Most importantly, I do show value on the home pup.
This is still a Broncos offense that is hard to trust to build a margin. After all, they have seven one-possession wins on the season with the past six coming by four points or fewer.
Further, they have yet to win a game by more than three points away from Mile High. They started the season with back-to-back road losses against the Chargers and Colts.
Since then, they had a crazy fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Eagles by four and had a similar type of comeback in Houston after C.J. Stroud went down with an injury.
Only two of the Broncos' previous eight games have come on the road, with one neutral-site contest against the hapless Jets, who they only beat by two points despite New York finishing with -10 net passing yards.
I believe this line is a tad too high, so I'm riding with the home 'dog in primetime.
Like most Broncos games, I think this one is close into the fourth quarter. There's also a high probability we see some inclement weather that could serve as bit of an equalizer.
Pick: Commanders +6
Spread
As mentioned, I'm backing Washington to cover the spread tonight.
Moneyline
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from the game total.
