The Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills will face off in Week 3 of the NFL preseason tonight. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Higmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The game will broadcast live on NFL Network.
The Bills are 2.5-point favorites over the Steelers on the spread (Bills -2.5), with the over/under set at 35.5 total points. Buffalo is listed as a -146 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Pittsburgh is a +124 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Steelers vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks for Thursday, August 27.
My Steelers vs Bills Prediction
- Steelers vs Bills pick: Steelers +2.5 (-104)
My Steelers vs. Bills best bet is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread (+2.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Bills Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -104 | 35.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 35.5 -110o / -110u | -146 |
Steelers vs Bills NFL Preseason Preview
Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview: Winning Culture & Pedigree
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the textbook definition of a team that was "strong, but not elite" last season, which makes them an ideal target for our Bet Labs system titled, "NFL Preseason: Pedigree ‘Dogs."
In Aaron Rodgers’ first year with the Steelers, the team outperformed expectations to win the rugged AFC North with a 10-7 record, despite ranking 15th in points scored and 17th in points allowed. They won a lot of ugly football games before ultimately suffering a 30-6 blowout loss to the Texans in the Wild Card Round.
That brutal playoff exit — their fifth Wild Card Round loss in the last six years — prompted the departure of longtime head coach Mike Tomlin. He was replaced by Mike McCarthy, who brings a proven track record (174-112-2 across 18 NFL seasons) from his tenures in Green Bay and Dallas.
Typically, sweeping organizational changes are a red flag for this betting system, but the Steelers' roster has remained remarkably consistent, and their established winning culture should make for a smooth transition.
With Rodgers and Mason Rudolph getting the night off for the preseason finale, the offense will be turned over entirely to Drew Allar and Will Howard.
Allar showed excellent upside in his preseason debut, completing 10-of-13 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in a 28-9 win over the Packers. He cooled off a bit in a 17-0 loss to the Jets (11-of-23, 110 yards), but he has protected the football well with zero interceptions.
Meanwhile, Will Howard's stat line is slightly marred by a pair of interceptions, but he has also been an otherwise serviceable fourth option, completing 17-of-24 pass attempts for 160 yards across two appearances.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview: Time to Sell High on Backup QBs
Unlike Pittsburgh, Buffalo falls outside the parameters of our system because the Bills were legitimately "elite" last season.
The Bills racked up 12 regular-season victories before defeating Jacksonville in the Wild Card Round and falling to Denver in the Divisional Round.
Buffalo has carried that momentum into the preseason, looking like a juggernaut. They dismantled the Panthers 29-14 and blew out the Browns 31-7.
New head coach Joe Brady has announced that while some starters will see the field, franchise quarterback Josh Allen will not be taking any snaps.
However, the Bills' backup quarterbacks have been very efficient. Kyle Allen is 24-of-28 passing for 236 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. Shane Buechele is 11-of-19 passing for 161 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions.
While those numbers are impressive, context is key.
Carolina and Cleveland do not boast loaded defensive depth charts. This creates a prime opportunity to sell high on Buffalo's backup signal-callers before regression hits.
Steelers vs Bills Prediction, Betting Analysis
This matchup aligns perfectly with the Bet Labs system titled "NFL Preseason: Pedigree ‘Dogs." This angle zeroes in on teams that won between 9-11 games the previous season.
The theory states that these organizations possess deep rosters, winning cultures, and situational stability, making them undervalued when they enter exhibition games as slight underdogs.
The market routinely fails to account for the depth and preparedness of these specific rosters, allowing bettors to capture a distinct edge against the spread.
The public has predictably bought into Buffalo's dominant preseason form and the news that some Bills starters will play, moving the line from an opening of -1.5 out to -2.5. However, this line movement is likely an overreaction.
Pittsburgh fits the system's criteria nicely. The Steelers' roster is deep, their culture is geared toward winning, and they are fielding competent, motivated backup quarterbacks in Allar and Howard.
We are selling high on Buffalo's inflated preseason statistics and trusting the system by taking the points with the Steelers in this spot.
Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-104)
