NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Bucs-Falcons, Two Other Week 6 Games
credit USA Today Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET). The game is listed at Falcons -3 with an over/under of 57.
- Sharps are also getting down on Los Angeles Chargers-Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET) and Baltimore Ravens-Tennessee Titans (4:25 p.m. ET).
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force oddsmakers to move the lines.
Wiseguys went 3-0 in Week 5. Here are the three games they’re getting down on this Sunday.
- Sharp angle: Buccaneers (+3.5 to +3)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
Sharps and squares are on opposite sides of this NFC South showdown. The Falcons are off to a disappointing 1-4 start, but the public sees Matt Ryan at home with a short spread and can’t lay off.
However, despite receiving 70% of spread bets, the Falcons have fallen from -3.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tampa Bay (2-2). Pros pounced on the hook at Buccaneers +3.5 early. This overload of smart money caused oddsmakers to drop the line to Tampa +3.
Three added bonuses for Bucs backers: Tampa Bay is a road divisional dog and coming off a bye, both profitable spots since 2005. Also, Walt Coleman is the head official — home teams are 47.7% against the spread, -10.25 units since 2005 when Coleman refs games.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
- Sharp angle: Browns (+1 to -1)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
After killing sharps for years, the Browns (2-2-1) have quietly gone 4-1 ATS so far this season. But average Joes still aren’t sold on Baker Mayfield and company.
This game opened at Los Angeles -1. Nearly 60% of spread bets are grabbing Philip Rivers and the Chargers (3-2) as a short road favorite. However, despite this public support, the line has flipped from LAC -1 to +1.
Goodfellas at Pinnacle and BetUS got down hard on Cleveland, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves that pushed the Browns from a one-point dog to a one-point favorite.
A cherry on top for Browns bettors: Brad Allen is the head official. Home teams have gone 55.6% ATS, +5.06 units with Allen as the lead ref.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
- Sharp angle: Ravens (-1 to -2.5)
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
In a matchup of 3-2 teams coming off bad losses, the public says give me the home dog getting points. Not the sharps.
Baltimore opened as a one-point favorite. Average Joes have pummeled Tennessee to the tune of 65% spread bets, expecting them to cover the short spread at home where they’re played well so far this season (2-0).
However, despite nearly two-thirds of spread bets taking the Titans, the line has moved toward Baltimore (-1 to -2.5).
Why would oddsmakers give out additional points to public Titans backers? Because they got hit with heavy Ravens action from respected players.
Baltimore is only getting 36% of bets but 53% of dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor. Also, Carl Cheffers is the head official (home teams have gone 48.1% ATS, -8.71 units since 2005 when Cheffers is the lead ref).