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NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Bucs-Falcons, Two Other Week 6 Games

Oct 14, 2018 10:00 AM EDT
  • Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. ET). The game is listed at Falcons -3 with an over/under of 57.
  • Sharps are also getting down on Los Angeles Chargers-Cleveland Browns (1 p.m. ET) and Baltimore Ravens-Tennessee Titans (4:25 p.m. ET).

In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.

They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.

Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force oddsmakers to move the lines.

By using the betting tools available at The Action Network and Sports Insights, we can track how sharps are affecting betting lines for every NFL Week 6 game.

Wiseguys went 3-0 in Week 5. Here are the three games they’re getting down on this Sunday.

  • Sharp angle: Buccaneers (+3.5 to +3)
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET

Sharps and squares are on opposite sides of this NFC South showdown. The Falcons are off to a disappointing 1-4 start, but the public sees Matt Ryan at home with a short spread and can’t lay off.

However, despite receiving 70% of spread bets, the Falcons have fallen from -3.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tampa Bay (2-2). Pros pounced on the hook at Buccaneers +3.5 early. This overload of smart money caused oddsmakers to drop the line to Tampa +3.


Three added bonuses for Bucs backers: Tampa Bay is a road divisional dog and coming off a bye, both profitable spots since 2005. Also, Walt Coleman is the head official — home teams are 47.7% against the spread, -10.25 units since 2005 when Coleman refs games.

Tampa Bay also fits three Bet Labs PRO Systems: NFL Road Trip vs Familiar Foes (58.7% ATS since 2005), NFL Bad ATS vs. Good ATS (53.8% ATS) and NFL Road Trip With Line Move (61.7% ATS).

Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns

  • Sharp angle: Browns (+1 to -1)
  • Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET

After killing sharps for years, the Browns (2-2-1) have quietly gone 4-1 ATS so far this season. But average Joes still aren’t sold on Baker Mayfield and company.

This game opened at Los Angeles -1. Nearly 60% of spread bets are grabbing Philip Rivers and the Chargers (3-2) as a short road favorite. However, despite this public support, the line has flipped from LAC -1 to +1.


Goodfellas at Pinnacle and BetUS got down hard on Cleveland, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves that pushed the Browns from a one-point dog to a one-point favorite.

A cherry on top for Browns bettors: Brad Allen is the head official. Home teams have gone 55.6% ATS, +5.06 units with Allen as the lead ref.

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

  • Sharp angle: Ravens (-1 to -2.5)
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET

In a matchup of 3-2 teams coming off bad losses, the public says give me the home dog getting points. Not the sharps.

Baltimore opened as a one-point favorite. Average Joes have pummeled Tennessee to the tune of 65% spread bets, expecting them to cover the short spread at home where they’re played well so far this season (2-0).

However, despite nearly two-thirds of spread bets taking the Titans, the line has moved toward Baltimore (-1 to -2.5).

Why would oddsmakers give out additional points to public Titans backers? Because they got hit with heavy Ravens action from respected players.

Baltimore is only getting 36% of bets but 53% of dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor. Also, Carl Cheffers is the head official (home teams have gone 48.1% ATS, -8.71 units since 2005 when Cheffers is the lead ref).

The Ravens fit two Bet Labs PRO systems:  NFL Road Trip vs Familiar Foes (58.7% ATS since 2005) and NFL Road Trip With Line Move (61.7% ATS).

 

Credit:

credit USA Today Sports

Follow Josh Appelbaum on Twitter
@Josh_Insights

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
ATL
NYG
-4.5
54
-4
54
WAS
DAL
-1
42
+1
41.5
CHI
NE
+2.5
50
+3
48.5
TB
CLE
-3
49.5
-3.5
51.5
JAC
HOU
-3.5
44
-4
41
NYJ
MIN
+3
47
+3.5
46
SF
LA
+10.5
53
+9.5
52
IND
BUF
-7
42.5
-7
43
LAC
TEN
-7
45.5
-6.5
45
ARI
DEN
+1
41
+1
42
MIA
DET
+2.5
47
+3
46.5
KC
CIN
-6
58.5
-6
58.5
PHI
CAR
-4.5
45
-5
44.5
BAL
NO
-2.5
51
-3
49.5