NFL Sharp Report: Pros Betting Texans-Broncos, Two Other Week 9 Games
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller (58).
- Wiseguys are betting three NFL games on Sunday, headlined by Detroit Lions-Minnesota Vikings (1 p.m. ET). The game is listed at Vikings -5.5 with an over/under of 49
- Sharps are also getting down on Chicago Bears-Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET) and Houston Texans-Denver Broncos (4:05 p.m. ET).
In gambling circles, “sharps” (also known as wiseguys) are professional bettors with long track records of success.
They don’t bet games based on bias or gut instinct. Instead, they are 100% analytical and value-driven.
Wiseguys bet numbers, not teams. When they place big wagers on a game, they force bookmakers to move the lines.
>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Now let’s get to the games!
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
- Sharp angle: Lions (+5.5)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
The public loves home teams, favorites and teams with better records than their opponents. The Vikings check off all three boxes for Average Joes in this one.
Currently 76% of bets are laying the points with Minnesota (4-3-1), expecting a touchdown win or more against visiting Detroit (3-4).
However, sharps are buying low on the contrarian divisional dog. This game opened at Vikes -5.5. Despite nearly 80% taking Minnesota, this line has remained frozen at -5.5. In fact, it even down to -3.5 briefly before adjusting back to the original number.
The most interesting fact is that the books refuse to move to Vikes -6, which tells you they are worried about offering the key number of +6 to Lions backers.
Pros at Pinnacle, SBG and Sportsbook all got down hard on Lions at +5.5 or +5, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t tracked a single conflicting play on Minnesota.
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills
- Sharp angle: Bills (+10)
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
No matter how hard they try, sharps just can’t quit Bills Mafia (2-6).
This game opened with Chicago (4-3) listed as an 8.5-point road favorite. Wiseguys laid off Buffalo early, knowing that if they waited it out heavy public Bears betting would provide extra points and an inflated number.
Once 70% of public support pushed Chicago from -8.5 to -10, that’s when Goodfellas pounced on Buffalo at the key number of +10.
Pros at 5Dimes, CRIS, Pinnacle, GTBets, Heritage and ABC all hammered Buffalo at +10, triggering seven different steam and reverse line moves.
Bills Mafia fits the profitable Bet Labs system Double Digit Dog After Double Digit Loss (56% ATS since 2005). They’re also a home dog 35% or less getting 10-point or more (62% ATS since 2005).
It doesn’t hurt that the total is set at a super-low 37.5. Low totals always benefit dogs, especially on big spreads (lower amount of points expected to be scored, harder it is for the favorite to cover, especially on the road).
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
- Sharp angle: Broncos (-1)
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
The Texans (5-3) are hitting their stride. After starting the year 0-3 they’ve now won five in a row. They also just traded for Demaryius Thomas to add a Robin to DeAndre Hopkins’ Batman.
Meanwhile, the Broncos (3-5) have lost four of their last five and just traded away their best receiver.
So how on Earth did this game open at Denver -1.5?
Square bettors are pounding the Texans plus the points, but sharps smell a rat. One of the foundational tenets of pro bettors: if it looks too good to be true, it is.
Nearly 75% of bets are taking Deshaun Watson and company. This overwhelming public support dropped Houston from +1.5 to a pick’em. That’s when sharps pounced on Denver at a deflated price.
Wiseguys at CRIS, Pinnacle, Buckeye and BetUS crushed Denver at a pick’em, triggering four separate reverse line moves which forced the line back up to Broncos -1.