The NFL preseason continues with a Week 2 doubleheader on Thursday night.
I am absolutely obsessed with the NFL preseason, which provides ample betting opportunities. Throughout the preseason, I will be previewing most games and providing, at the very least, some sort of pregame or in-game angle. I won't necessarily have a bet for every game, but you'll definitely know what I'm thinking and looking for in each contest in regards to quarterback depth, key positional battles, and more.
I will be locking in my actual NFL preseason bets on gameday so make sure to follow me in the Action App to see those picks right when I bet them. Let's dive into my expert NFL preseason picks for Thursday, Aug. 20.
NFL Preseason Picks — Thursday 8/20
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Raiders vs Texans
Klint Kubiak
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
DeMeco Ryans
ATS: 6-5
O/U: 1-10
Texans
QB Performance Ratings (out of 115 QBs, updated through the 2026 preseason)
C.J. Stroud: 65th
Davis Mills: 77th
Graham Mertz: 101st
Brett Rypien: 80th
DeMeco Ryans said he anticipates the starters getting some playing time here. Last year, he had C.J. Stroud and the starters play the entire first quarter, Davis Mills play the entire second quarter, then turned the second half over to the third- and fourth-string QBs. I’m expecting a similar approach here.
The wrinkle is that Graham Mertz tore his ACL last week, forcing the Texans to bring in Brett Rypien as his replacement. That injury also completely screwed up Houston’s planned rotation. Mills played one series before Mertz entered and was seemingly going to finish the game, but once Mertz went down and Houston had no other healthy QBs, Mills had to come back in and finish it.
So, Mills ended up playing WAY more than the Texans intended. My guess is they’re perfectly content giving him roughly the second quarter this week before letting Rypien handle most, if not all, of the second half. As always with preseason QB rotations, this is still a total guessing game.
Raiders
QB Performance Ratings
Kirk Cousins: 5th
Fernando Mendoza: 38th
Aidan O'Connell: 69th
Jacob Clark: N/A
Klint Kubiak hasn’t specifically said whether Kirk Cousins and the starters will play, instead emphasizing the work they got during joint practices against Houston this week.
My guess is Cousins sits, which would mean No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza gets the start and potentially plays most, if not all, of the first half.
If that’s the case, Mendoza could get one hell of a test right away. I’m expecting most of Houston’s starting defense to play the first quarter, so throwing the rookie out there against one of the best defenses in football would give the Raiders some useful film.
Once Mendoza is done, Aidan O’Connell should take over and could play anywhere from 1-1.5 quarters to potentially the entire second half.
If Cousins sits, that also increases the chances UDFA Jacob Clark gets his first preseason action, most likely sometime in the fourth quarter.
Clark looks the part of a classic pocket passer. He showed plenty of poise at Missouri State, although obviously Conference USA didn’t exactly prepare him for facing NFL defenders. You won’t confuse him with Josh Allen, but he can use his legs when needed, which becomes a much more valuable trait when you’re playing in the fourth quarter of a preseason game.
His first NFL action would come with a massive range of outcomes, as it does for just about any UDFA QB. Going in, I’d probably expect him to settle somewhere in the 80th-100th range of my Preseason QB Performance Ratings, but this is the type of player I want to see play in this environment before pretending I know exactly what he is.
The Angle
This game could have two very different betting environments.
Houston should have a pretty significant edge in the first quarter if Stroud and the starters play on both sides of the ball. The Texans’ defense in particular could make life miserable for Mendoza if he’s starting opposite them.
However, Houston just lost WR Jayden Higgins to a torn ACL, which is a pretty significant blow to the offense. It’s possible that makes Ryans even more cautious with his starters and leads to an earlier hook than we��d otherwise expect.
Either way, once Houston’s starting defense leaves the field, I think the matchup starts flipping toward Las Vegas pretty quickly.
That defensive drop-off is important. Houston’s starting unit is elite, which naturally means going from its first unit to the second and third units represents a bigger downgrade than it does for most teams. We saw some of that last week when the Chargers scored 27 points against Houston’s backups and practice-squad candidates, including 14 in the fourth quarter.
