NFL Picks Week 11: Commanders vs Giants, Browns vs Steelers
Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Tomlin.
NFL Picks Week 11
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Brandon Anderson is targeting from Week 11's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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Steelers vs. Browns
I grabbed Steelers +5 on Friday. Part of the reason we liked that was the low total, so might as well grab the under, too, right?
Who’s going to score in this game? Deshaun Watson without some key offensive linemen and Nick Chubb? Maybe Matt Canada’s offense? Sure, maybe.
The Browns defense is No. 1 in DVOA and just contained Lamar Jackson in impressive fashion. The Steelers defense itself is great and should be able to put Watson under pressure consistently.
Steelers games have averaged 37.6 points per game this season, and all but two have seen 42 or fewer points scored. Browns games are averaging 42.9 points per game, but take out the 39-38 game in Indianapolis and the 66 today and that average is down to 34.7.
The Steelers are 7-2 to the under this season, and Mike Tomlin is the most profitable coach for road unders at 77-54-1 (59%).
There’s a good chance this number gets down to 38. Unders are 10-2-1 this season entering Sunday Night Football’s Raiders vs. Jets game at 37 or lower, with 37 being a key number in the world of totals.
Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)
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Commanders vs. Giants
I warned you last week on The Lookahead that this was coming.
I’m sorry, but 10 points is too many points. The total is 37!
Just two weeks ago, the Giants beat Washington 14-7 with Tyrod Taylor. New York isn’t good at anything, but defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will again blitz Sam Howell and disrupt the Commanders offense.
Seven of the last eight matchups in this rivalry were one-score games. New York has only failed to cover this total in one of its last 12 games against the Commanders.
The preseason line for this game was Giants -1.5. Have we learned enough to merit an 11.5-point swing? Washington hasn’t covered 10 points all season and has done so only four times in the last three seasons.
The margin of victory for the Giants is -14.8 points, which triggers a trend. Underdogs with a -14 margin of victory or worse in Week 5 and beyond are 101-52-1 (66%) ATS, including 60-22-1 (73%) on the road. The road ‘dog won outright three of the six times this happened in the last calendar year.
Let’s get ugly.