Packers vs Cowboys Odds & Picks: NFL Wild Card Player Props

Packers vs Cowboys Odds & Picks: NFL Wild Card Player Props

It'd be a stunner if Sunday’s showdown doesn’t turn into a shootout. The only question is if it can soar above a threshold that’s been tough to clear of late. Games closing at a total of 50 or higher are 10-2 to the under this season and 28-12 the past two years.

Nonetheless, all the ingredients are there to exceed 50.5 points. The only question is whether the recipe comes together. The public certainly believes it will, with 82% of the tickets and money backing it.

Full transparency: I managed to grab this at 48.5 earlier in the week, and it’s crept up to a number I was initially wary of. However, enough trends, data and patterns have changed my mind, especially the fact that an average of 53.25 points have been scored at AT&T Stadium. As a result, I’m comfortable backing this up to 51.5.

Chris Raybon: Any team that wants to hang with the Cowboys has to be able to score, and the Packers can do just that. Not only does the Green Bay offense (sixth in DVOA) rate better than Dallas’ (ninth) on the season, but it has moved into the top three in Weighted DVOA, which weights recent games more heavily. It took Jordan Love a couple of months to knock off the cobwebs from sitting for the better part of three seasons, but since November he has been borderline elite.

• September-October (seven games): 19.3-of-33.4 (57.7%) for 213.3 yards per game (6.4 yards per attempt), 1.6 TD, 1.1 INT, 2.0 sacks
• November-end of season (10 games): 23.7-of-34.5 (68.7%), 266.6 yards per game (7.7 yards per attempt), 2.1 TD, 0.3 INT, 1.5 sacks

Love has balled out since November despite No. 1 wide receiver Christian Watson missing the past five games, No. 1 tight end Luke Musgrave missing six games before returning last week, No. 1 running back Aaron Jones missing three games, and emerging rookie wideouts Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks also missing time. If Watson (hamstring) is able to suit up this Sunday, it will mark this first time Love will have his top four wide receivers (Watson/Romeo Doubs/Reed/Wicks), top two tight ends (Musgrave/Tucker Kraft), and Jones healthy at the same time since Week 11. Jones has added another dimension to the offense, with three straight games over 110 rushing yards.

The offensive line is tied for seventh in Pass Blocking Efficiency since Week 9 and should be able to hold its own versus a Cowboy pass rush that has been good but not dominant, ranking eighth in sack rate (8.3%), T-13th in sacks per game (2.71), and 16th in pressure rate (21.3%), per Pro Football Reference. In terms of PFF pass-blocking grade, both Packer tackles – Rasheed Walker (74.1, 22nd) and Zack Tom (73.9, 23rd) – grade out in the top 25 among 83 qualifiers on the season.

The Cowboys play the NFL’s highest rate of man coverage in the league with Stpehon Gilmore (questionable-shoulder) and DaRon Bland on the outside, but that shouldn’t be an issue for Love, who has been better versus man (97.9 rating) than zone (84.6). Going on the road also shouldn’t be an issue, as the Packers rank third in the NFL with 25.3 points per game on the road.

Thanks to their surging offense, the Packers are up to 12th in overall Weighted DVOA – eight spots behind the Cowboys. The Cowboys are rightly favored – they’ll be able to score against Joe Barry’s maddeningly underachieving defense – but the Packers have enough offensive firepower to keep the score close or secure a backdoor cover if needed.

Per our Action Labs data, Sunday Wild Card/Divisional Round single-digit road dogs are 46-16-1 (74%) ATS since 2003, covering by 4.4 points per game.

Bet to: +6.5

Michael Crosson: The Packers have been on quite the roller coaster in Jordan Love’s first full season. Initially, it seemed like the Pack might’ve been dead on arrival as they stumbled out to a frustrating 3-6 skid, averaging 20 points or less in seven of those affairs.

However, Green Bay transformed into a completely different team during the back half of the season. The Packers closed their campaign with an impressive 6-2 run to sneak into the playoffs as the seventh seed, which is primarily thanks to their young, talented offense averaging over 25 points per game down the stretch. They cleared the 27-point mark in four of their last eight contests.

After falling short of 250 passing yards in six of seven games to open the season, Love closed the regular season with performances of 250-plus yards in seven of the Packers’ last nine contests while crossing the 265-yard passing mark in six of those affairs.

Gilles Gallant: A long-shot bet I like in this game is Love to rush for a TD at +800.

He rushed for four TDs this season and got into the end zone in Weeks 16 and 17 on the road. The Packers will likely be missing AJ Dillon while Aaron Jones has been effective in certain snaps and a dud in others.

If Green Bay gets within the five-yard line, I’d rather have a ticket on Love than bank on Jones at +137 considering the running back hasn’t scored since Week 5.

Pick: Jordan Love Anytime TD (+800)