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The Betting History of Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady: ATS & Total Results From Their First 4 Meetings

The Betting History of Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady: ATS & Total Results From Their First 4 Meetings article feature image

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady

Super Bowl 55 will showcase the fifth meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.

With a 3-point spread and 56.5-point total (find real-time odds here), sportsbooks are expecting another close and high-scoring clash between baby GOAT and the GOAT. But how have their first four matchups gone? We’ve compiled the betting results of their head-to-head history below.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady

Below is a snapshot of their past results based on our Action Labs data. We’ll dig into each meeting in more detail below.

Patriots, 43-40
Week 6, 2018
Chiefs +4
Over 59.5
Patriots, 37-31 (OT)
2018 AFC Championship
Patriots -3
Over 56.5
Chiefs, 23-16
Week 14, 2019
Chiefs +3
Under 49.5
Chiefs, 27-24
Week 12, 2020
Bucs +3.5
Under 56

Week 6, 2018

  • Result: Patriots, 43-40
  • Spread: Chiefs +4
  • Over/Under: 59.5

Mahomes and Brady had nearly identical completions and yards in their first ever meeting:

  • Mahomes: 23-of-36 completions for 352 yards
  • Brady: 24-of-35 completions for 340 yards

The key difference? Mahomes threw four touchdowns to two interceptions while Brady tossed one score and no picks.

This matchup was close throughout, but ultimately Brady put the Patriots in position to seal it on a game-winning field goal.

2018 AFC Championship

  • Result: Patriots, 37-31
  • Spread: Patriots -3
  • Over/Under: 56.5

Despite throwing an interception on their second drive, Brady led the Patriots to a 14-0 lead in the first half. Then Mahomes and the Chiefs turned it on, scoring touchdowns on two of their first three drives of the second half to cut the deficit to 17-14.

Brady threw his second interception of the game midway through the final quarter, which the Chiefs returned to the Patriots’ 23-yard line. Mahomes’ first play of the drive? A 7-yard pass to Sammy Watkins that was reversed. Mahomes’ second play of the drive? A 23-yard touchdown to Damien Williams.

That touchdown was the first of four over the final eight minutes of regulation, with the Chiefs and Patriots exchanging scores on back-to-back-to-back-to-back drives.

William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady

That brought the Chiefs within three points, using three plays over the final 31 seconds to get into field goal range and force overtime. But before the Chiefs even got a chance in the extra period, Brady led the Patriots 75 yards on 13 plays to seal the game and punch a ticket to his final Super Bowl with the Patriots.

Week 14, 2019

  • Result: Chiefs, 23-16
  • Spread: Chiefs +3
  • Over/Under: 49.5

This was Mahomes’ final showdown against Brady in New England.

The Patriots took a 7-0 lead, but the Chiefs strung together a run of 20 unanswered points, aided by a Brady interception that set up a touchdown.

Neither quarterback dazzled in this matchup — they each finished with one touchdown and one interception while Mahomes threw for 283 yards to Brady’s 169.

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Week 12, 2020

  • Result: Chiefs, 27-24
  • Spread: Buccaneers +3.5
  • Over/Under: 56

Mahomes and the Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter, holding onto that edge until Brady and the Buccaneers scored their first points in the final minutes before halftime. The Bucs struggled to gain much momentum, though, trailing 27-10 at the start of the fourth quarter.

Brady did toss two touchdowns to Mike Evans on their final two drives, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the deficit. It was enough to cover, though.

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