Patriots’ 16-Year Against-the-Spread Streak in Jeopardy vs. Bengals

Patriots’ 16-Year Against-the-Spread Streak in Jeopardy vs. Bengals article feature image
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Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady.

  • Since 2003, the Patriots have never failed to cover the spread in four consecutive games.
  • Following their loss to the Chiefs, that 16+ year streak is now in jeopardy.

Since 2003, the New England Patriots have gone 160-101-8 (61.3%) against the spread. If you moved had saved up a bundle of cash, moved to Vegas and bet a casual $100k on them every week during the last 16+ seasons, you’d be up over $5 million be banned from every sportsbook on the strip.

Something that the Patriots are certainly not accustomed to is a prolonged struggle. During that span, the Pats have never failed to cover in four consecutive games, but that streak is now in jeopardy.

It was a controversial game, but the Pats’ 23-16 loss to the Chiefs means they’ve now lost three straight games against the spread. This is their seventh time failing to cover in three straight, but they’ve always managed to cover in that fourth game. In fact, they’ve covered by an average of 17 points.

Perhaps you recall, but this actually just happened last year, too. The Patriots did not cover in Weeks 14-16, but coasted over the Jets in Week 17 in a 38-3 route.

Not surprisingly, all of the other 31 teams have managed this unflattering feat per Bet Labs. Every team in the league other than the Bills has done it at least three times, actually, and 27 teams have gone on five-game ATS losing streaks.

The public hasn’t given up on New England in any of the previous six lengthy cover-less streaks, as the Pats have gotten at least 57% of spread bets in their streak-busting games.

This week, the Pats will have the tall, tall task of facing the 1-12 Bengals in Cincinnati. Early lines have the Pats as 9.5/10 point favorites. Perhaps some folks will opt to lay some huge juice and just bet them on the moneyline.

That brings me to another streak that could be broken, though it’s much more unlikely. Since 2003, the Patriots have never lost three consecutive regular season games. They’re 7-0 straight up following two losses, winning by 22 points on average.

This moneyline sits between -400 and -450. Is it a lock or a sucker’s bet? We shall see, but just remember, there’s a first time for everything.