Chiefs vs Eagles Odds, Pick, Prediction | Monday Night Football
Chiefs vs. Eagles odds have Kansas City as a 2.5-point home favorite, while the over/under is up to 46 for NFL Monday Night Football, but neither line factors into my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction and pick.
We've suffered through a number of bad primetime matchups this season, but that won't be the case on Monday Night Football (potential kiss of death?) in one of the most anticipated regular-season games of 2023. Both teams benefited from a much-needed bye week entering into this showdown that pits the current No. 1 seeds of the NFC and AFC against each other. It's a Super Bowl rematch and could be a preview of this February, as well.
Let's get into why I'm betting Kansas City as my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction.
Chiefs vs Eagles Odds
The Eagles feature one of the best offenses in the league, ranking fourth in EPA per play and fifth in Success Rate. They boast an elite offensive line, a top-five quarterback, a deadly rushing attack and one of the best wide receiver duos in the league led by A.J. Brown, who is currently playing at an All-Pro level.
That said, this unit isn't quite firing on all cylinders relative to last season. Why? For one, Jalen Hurts hasn't been fully healthy, dealing with a lingering knee issue, which has reduced his threat as a runner, which makes the offense easier to defend.
One major unknown coming into Monday night is how much healthier Hurts will be after two weeks off. If he's close to or at 100%, that would provide a huge boost for Philly on this side of the ball.
However, the Eagles won't have the services of tight end Dallas Goedert, who will miss time with an injury. That will hurt the Eagles in the red zone. I also think the play-calling has taken a step back after the departure of offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.
While the Eagles offense isn't quite at the level we saw at its peak last season, the Chiefs defense has improved significantly. On the season, Kansas City ranks fourth in both Success Rate and EPA per play.
The run defense still remains vulnerable, which I'm assuming Philadelphia will look to exploit. However, Hurts may not find it as easy to attack the Chiefs secondary downfield as he did during a sparkling display in the Super Bowl. To date, only the elite Cleveland defense ranks higher in Success Rate and EPA on opposing quarterback dropbacks.
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You may look at Kansas City's defensive roster and be a bit surprised at the level of success it's enjoyed. Chris Jones is obviously a star along the defensive line while Trent McDuffie has turned into one of the better overall cover corners in the league. He's a big reason why Kansas City ranks fourth in the league against No. 1 wide receivers.
However, outside of those two and strong linebacker play, the Chiefs are truly a case of the sum being greater than the parts under the tutelage of always-excellent defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who will undoubtedly have a rock-solid game plan for the Eagles.
While the Kansas City defense has taken a step forward this season, the same can't be said for the offense. It's still a top-10 unit (sixth in DVOA) with the best quarterback and tight end in the league, but the wide receiver room still hasn't found its full footing. As a result, Kansas City doesn't find itself at the very top of the advanced metric leaderboards as it usually does since Mahomes took over under center.
Meanwhile, the same can be said for the Eagles defense. After losing their defensive coordinator and a few key pieces from last year's NFC Championship team, the Eagles have major holes, particularly in coverage against short passes and over the middle of the field. Due to injuries, they also don't really have a reliable slot corner, either.
The Eagles remain extremely stout against the run, but if their ferocious pass rush can't get home, they can be picked apart, as we saw with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys two weeks ago.
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Chiefs vs. Eagles
Betting Picks & Predictions
This is a good matchup for the Chiefs on paper. Their defense can contain the Philly receivers, while Mahomes should pick apart the Philadelphia back end, especially since he never takes sacks and will be operating behind one of the best interior offensive lines in the league, which many teams simply don't have.
On the season, the Eagles rank 25th against short passes, 28th over the middle of the field, 32nd against tight ends and 28th against the slot. That spells trouble against Mahomes, who should find Travis Kelce early and often.
The one wild card is the health of Hurts. If he's at full strength, the Eagles should have even more success running the ball. Regardless, they should be able to move the chains on the ground and could control the clock, potentially wearing down the Kansas City defense and keeping Mahomes on the sideline.
I'm assuming the Eagles will have a good game plan and likely play this very aggressively. It helps when you essentially only have to get nine yards on every new set of downs with the success of the brotherly shove. However, Philly has enjoyed quite a bit of fortune this season, ranking second in our Luck Rankings, which has masked some of the issues we've seen on both sides of the ball.
This should be a super competitive game throughout, but I've said countless times the best bet in sports is backing the best quarterback on the planet when you need him to win the game, which is the route I took in last year's Super Bowl. Including the postseason, Mahomes has gone a ridiculous 20-6-1 (76.9%) ATS as an underdog or favorite of three or fewer points, covering by an average margin of more than 4.5 points per game.
I like the Chiefs here at under a field goal, but I have a sneaky suspicion the Eagles will be super aggressive on fourth downs — even more than usual — and also with 2-point conversions, which may create some odd scores and make the field-goal spread less important than usual. Therefore, I prefer the moneyline based on my gut feeling.
I could see the case for either side, especially the Eagles at +3, but I'm going to trust Mahomes at this price range as I always have. Regardless of which side you back, it should be one helluva watch.
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