Realize these props are tougher to grab because they move FAST after I post and bet them. They’re still one of my favorite markets to dive into (helps me with offensive player props too) and are super fun to sweat. I would imagine they grow in popularity over the next few seasons. Tackling is so essential to the game we love and prop bettors still haven’t scratched the surface of actually betting on them yet. Once that starts to happen, this market will sharpen up and it’ll be easier to get more down without lines moving as fast. On that note, I’ll continue to post my favorite offensive player prop and favorite tackle prop for each game. Be sure to check out our Prop tool, which shows the biggest prop edges based on my projections, if you’d like to target even more props from each game. Thompson is expected to play through a neck injury, while Terrel Bernard has already been ruled out with a calf injury. In Weeks 13–15 when Bernard was out, Shaq filled in as an every-down linebacker and played 95% of the snaps. During that 3-game stretch, his tackle rate on run plays went up from 15.8% to 20.6%, and his tackle rate on completed passes went up from 12.4% to 14.6%. If you apply his season rates to the matchup against the Jaguars, I have him projected for 6.5 tackles. If you apply his 3-game sample in place of Bernard, I have him closer to 8.1. Needless to say, I’m showing value on him either way, but he carries a ton of upside in this full-time role without Bernard. Plus, the Bills scorekeeper has been by far the stingiest when it comes to dishing out assists so anytime he plays on the road it increases his chances of picking up assists. Also, as I mentioned in my Allen under 33.5 pass att prop, the Bills have dominated TOP this season and, as a result, their defense has faced the fewest plays per game. Facing the Jaguars here, who are 4th in TOP and 4th in plays per game, we could see the defense on the field for more plays, which raises Shaq’s upside. I’m projecting him closer to 6.8 tackles (but obviously could be even higher given the 3-game split I highlighted without Bernard) with around a 67% chance to clear 5.5. I’m also going to add some more at 7+ +135 (projected closer to -108) and 10+ +820 (projected closer to +575).

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