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NFL Week 5 has come and gone, and if there is one overarching storyline from the weekend, it is outright coaching malpractice.
We saw crazy endings in almost every single TV window, and it felt like each game featured a coach making a baffling decision with the game on the line. But that’s why we love this league — it keeps us in business.
It is time to take out the binoculars and see what is on the horizon. Let's zoom out and reset the NFC division and playoff picture.
Right now, there is only one NFC division that has a favorite listed at 50% or better to win it. Two of these divisions are loaded with teams fighting for playoff spots, and two are such a disaster we might be lucky to get a single team above .500.
Ultimately, it looks like we are getting one playoff team from the NFC East, one from the NFC South, and five from the other two divisions.
Let's go through the NFC division by division, reset the board, and find the betting value.
NFC Division & Playoff Picture Reset
| Picks |
|---|
| NFC West |
| NFC North |
| NFC East |
| NFC South |
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NFC West
Let's start by checking the temperature on the Rams (2-3), who played the game of the year on Monday Night Football against the Bills. We only saw three punts all game, 35 points in the fourth quarter, six straight touchdowns to end regulation, and a wild overtime finish.
Unfortunately, we also saw a masterclass in coaching mistakes.
Sean McVay's bad clock management, opting not to go for two, kicking and then turtling in overtime — plus some brutal special teams gaffes — cost the Rams the game.
Josh Allen was the best player on the field by a mile. He showed exactly why he is an annual MVP candidate, doing it without DJ Moore, with a defense that couldn't get a stop, and with James Cook fumbling endlessly.
The Bills had 17.0 EPA for the game as a team, and Josh Allen individually had 21.4 EPA. He was unstoppable as a scrambler, rushing 10 times for 121 yards and a score. It showed why he is the MVP, but also why he probably won't win it — his team is going to let him down.
Buffalo's defense was on the field for 78 plays and 38 minutes of possession, which makes them a fade candidate on a short week against the Raiders.
But as for the Rams? They are still No. 1 in my power ratings, and they will be even better once Myles Garrett is back.
If the Rams and Bills meet again in the Super Bowl, I am ready to bet a Josh Allen rushing yards and Puka Nacuareceptions escalator (Puka went for 17/138 on 24 targets on MNF).
Of course, the Rams will have to start by making the playoffs first, and three losses in five games is not helping that cause. The margin for error is shrinking quickly.
The rest of the division was headlined by the 49ers' 32-29 win over the Seahawks. Despite the 61 combined points, this was a dominant defensive game from both teams.
Neither team had any offense outside of their star wide receiver. Both offenses finished below 260 yards, neither reached 15 first downs, and they went a combined 7-for-24 on third down. The seven combined turnovers were the most in any game this season, including a disastrous Seattle fumble-six right before halftime that swung the game.
In the last last three matchups against San Francisco, Seattle's defense has forced the three worst 49ers offensive games of the last two years by EPA per drive. Still, this was a great San Francisco rushing effort, its 65% success rate on designed runs the best by any team against a Mike Macdonald defense.
Defensively, the 49ers held Seattle to a 30% success rate, which ranks 4th percentile. The San Francisco defensive line flat out won the game.
I'm officially worried about Sam Darnold. Seattle's offense has fallen off enough that this team might be closer to what we expected from Houston coming into the season.
San Francisco is now 5-0, including wins against Denver, Seattle, and the Rams. The 49ers are the first team since the 1981 Broncos to notch three wins against teams from the previous year's Conference Championship Games through the first five weeks.
More importantly, the 49ers are functionally up 2.5 games on the 3-2 Seahawks and 3.5 games on the 2-3 Rams, since they won "road" matchups against each. San Francisco's injuries are highly worrisome long term, but it is in a hugely advantageous position.
FTN has the 49ers at an 84% probability to win the division — the highest of any team in the NFL — projecting them for 13.5 wins. The Seahawks and Rams are both sitting around 8% with 10 projected wins. Technically, there is some value on San Francisco to win the division at -200 (Caesars), but I can't invest because of the injuries.
Look at the schedule.
The Rams have a massive swing spot coming up: Arizona, Las Vegas, Chargers, Washington, and Arizona. That could quickly turn 2-3 into 7-3. Seattle has a much tougher road with a Thursday night game in Denver, then Kansas City and Chicago.
The fade spot for San Francisco is coming: Monday night against Washington, then Atlanta and a bye.
The 49ers are the clear division and 1-seed favorites, but the Seahawks and Rams play twice in the last three weeks of the season, which could easily knock one of them out entirely.
Verdict: The 49ers are the clear favorites, but you can't bet the division with their injury outlook. Wait for a San Francisco fade spot in a few weeks.
NFC North
The NFC North is still the most interesting and up-for-grabs division in the league.
Are we positive we know anything for sure about any of these four teams? Let's go big picture.
The Vikings are 5-0 with elite defense and special teams, but do they have any offense? We haven't seen Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jordan Mason, or the offensive line fully healthy yet.
The Lions are 3-2 and just thrashed the Cardinals, scoring on seven straight possessions while their defense held Arizona to seven points until garbage time. The Lions offense remains awesome, the young offensive line is gelling, and getting Brian Branch back is huge for the defense. But can the defense get enough stops?
The Bears are 3-2. They blew out Carolina, but they also scored just three points against Minnesota in the rain. The Bears are 2-1 playing with backup quarterbacks and they should feel good about being over .500 — but what have we really learned for sure? Not much. Chicago also got crushed by Green Bay.
The Packers are 3-2, and Jordan Love just shredded Dennis Allen's defense, a worrisome trend for the Bears. Green Bay still can't run the ball, but the offensive line is improving. Who knows what is going on with Josh Jacobs, but Micah Parsons is returning soon.
Every team in this division is over .500, which bodes well for two or three of them making the playoffs. The Vikings are up two games on everyone else, sit at 2-0 in the division, and are priced around a coin flip to win the North.
I don't see much value betting the division right now, outside of Detroit at +300 (DraftKings), same as last week.
However, we are almost certainly getting at least one, maybe two Wild Card teams from this division. FTN gives the Lions a 72% chance to make the playoffs, the Bears 43%, and the Packers 33%.
Detroit still has a super soft schedule, featuring huge home games against Green Bay and Minnesota next. Chicago, on the other hand, faces a brutal stretch (at Atlanta, New England, at Seattle), the defense was just re-exposed, and there are still major question marks surrounding Caleb Williams.
Polymarket has Detroit at 58% to make the playoffs, while Kalshi has the Bears at 45% to miss.
Some books will let you parlay these outcomes even though they shouldn't. These are directly correlated outcomes — they are fighting for the exact same NFC Wild Card spot.
BET: Lions to Make the Playoffs & Bears to Miss the Playoffs SGP (+181 at FanDuel)
NFC East
What an absolutely disastrous week for this division. They picked up zero wins despite having a 9-point favorite in one game and two teams playing each other in another!
All four teams are now officially projected below .500 by FTN.
The Eagles continue to be a hot mess. They had a lifeline Sunday but threw it away. We took the Philadelphia win total mineshaft last week, and it is now down to 33% to win the division and 38% to make the playoffs.
The Giants are up two games in the win column, and honestly, a tie is not necessarily a disastrous outcome for them in a division this bad — it's not a loss!
I still prefer the Cowboys because I trust their offense more than any other unit in the East, but there's not much value at +180 (DraftKings).
The Giants/Commanders tie was atrocious to watch, but ties create betting value. At most sportsbooks, ties do not count as wins nor even 0.5 wins toward season win totals. Washington is 1-3-1, which means for win-total purposes, essentially 1-4.
The Commanders are a bottom-five team in my power ratings. The defense is terrible, and Dan Quinn is a dead man walking. They have very little outside of Jayden Daniels, who everyone seems to agree is a high re-injury risk.
Look at Washington's upcoming schedule: at San Francisco, Philadelphia, the Rams, at the Giants, and Cincinnati. That likely means a 2-7-1 record or worse. The schedule gets softer after that, but if Daniels gets hurt again and Quinn is gone, the bottom drops out entirely.
I'm fading this tough stretch. Washington needs six more wins to bust our bet.
BET: Washington Commanders 7+ Wins: NO (55% / -122 at Kalshi)
Mineshaft options: 6+ Wins: NO (40% at Kalshi), 5+ Wins: NO (25% at Kalshi)
NFC South
This division remains a complete disaster, as always.
The Saints looked ugly against Minnesota. They rank 30th in DVOA, and their only win was mostly a Ravens collapse.
FTN has the Saints projected for just 5.0 wins and gives them a laughable 2.6% chance to win the NFC South. They have a crazy soft schedule coming up, but you still have to actually win those games.
The Falcons completely blew it against the Ravens. They almost went 3-0 in their primetime stretch, but just as I was ready to buy into Michael Penix Jr., he hurt his ribs again. The dude is made of glass.
Next up, the Falcons play Chicago, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Kansas City. They need to have Penix for that stretch — Atlanta with Penix is easily the most intriguing team in the division.
The Panthers are actually top 10 in DVOA, and FTN’s model picks them to win the division at 46%. I am not ready to buy that.
With Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and Denver up next, I need to see more than one good month from Bryce Young.
And then we have the Buccaneers, who saved their season on Thursday Night Football with a comprehensive win against the Cowboys.
Tampa Bay ranks 12th in DVOA, boasts a top-five defense under Todd Bowles, and its special teams took a big jump into the top 10. Jalon Daniels essentially saved their season, and Baker Mayfield should be back soon.
The healthy Bucs are still easily the best team in the division in my power ratings. They are now just one game back in this awful group, with very winnable games against Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Atlanta up next. I think they're still at least 20% to win the division.
BET: Buccaneers to Win the NFC South (15% / +567 at Polymarket or +550 at DraftKings)
Brandon Anderson's Futures Bets Placed This Week
- Lions to Make Playoffs & Bears to Miss Playoffs SGP: +181 (FanDuel)
- Washington Commanders 7+ Wins NO: 55% / -122 (Kalshi)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Win NFC South: 15% / +567 (Polymarket)
- Houston Texans to Win AFC South: 13% / +669 (Polymarket)
- Lamar Jackson to Win MVP: 5% / +1900 (Polymarket)
