Raiders vs Chargers Odds, Prediction | Prop Pick for AFC West Showdown
Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images. Pictured: Joshua Kelley (left) and Justin Herbert.
Raiders vs Chargers Odds for NFL Week 4
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 49 -11o / -110u | +240 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -300 |
The late slate on Sunday starts with us delving into Raiders vs. Chargers odds, which show Los Angeles as home favorites of almost a touchdown at SoFi Stadium.
Wackiness has been a hallmark of Raiders-Chargers games over the years, which is why I tend to steer clear of picking a side when these AFC West division rivals square off.
That’s especially the case this year, as key players from each team are expected to miss the game, notably Chargers RB Austin Ekeler (ankle), DE Joey Bosa, S Derwin James and Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion). Las Vegas is turning to rookie Aidan O'Connell in relief of Garoppolo.
Let's preview how these injuries impact Raiders vs. Chargers odds and make our pick and prediction.
Editor's Note: This Raiders vs. Chargers preview was published before Jimmy Garoppolo was ruled out.
Sportsbooks listed Kelley’s rushing yards line at 52.5 immediately after Los Angeles announced Ekeler was doubtful. That feels awfully high, and our Pro Prop Projections agree. The model projects Kelly to finish way below that threshold, grading it as the single-best prop betting edge this week with a 37.9% advantage in our favor.
Kelley has exceeded 52.5 rushing yards only three times in his career — though, in fairness, he hasn’t been a bell cow often over the years. However, he’s struggled in the 10 games in which he’s had at least double-digit carries, averaging only 43 yards.
The four-year veteran’s best game came in a huge Week 1 performance to start the year when he had 16 carries for 91 yards (5.7 YPC). Unfortunately, any hope he could step up after the team lost Ekeler was quickly quashed.
He’s run the ball 24 times for 51 yards in the two games since, averaging a paltry 2.1 YPC. That includes last week, when he had 11 totes for 12 yards (1.4 YPC), highlighted by his very public failure to convert on fourth-and-short late in the game.
Add it all up, and Kelley ranks 46th in DVOA among qualifying running backs (1.1%).
Bet Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel
Things won’t get any easier this week as the Chargers placed All-Pro center Corey Linsley on injured reserve with a non-emergent heart-related medical issue. It’s a major blow for the Bolts as Linsley entered the year as PFF's third-highest ranked center.
Furthermore, Kelley’s ineffectiveness has forced the offense to become unbalanced. The Chargers have thrown the ball 89 times and have ran it only 36 times with him as the lead back, including kneel downs.
I expect that to continue. There’s no reason to take the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands. He’s one of the most gifted quarterbacks in recent memory.
Fans and media alike have been calling for Brandon Staley’s head, and those cries will only intensify if he rolls with a struggling Kelley instead of the team’s MVP-caliber quarterback.
Raiders vs. Chargers
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Chargers are far and away the more talented team, and in a vacuum should dominant the Raiders.
However, there are too many variables to feel comfortable backing them against the spread, especially with seven of the last eight games meetings being decided by one score. In fact, there’s so much uncertainty about who will suit up that sportsbooks aren’t listing typical player props for the Raiders.
So, with so much up in the air, I’m counting on two things to occur. First, the Bolts will rely on Herbert to avoid a 1-3 hole. Second, Kelley’s career-long struggles as a lead back continues.
Truth be told, while I think the Raiders bottle up Kelley, I’m not as confident as I’d like to be. Jimmy Garoppolo's been ruled out with a concussion, so either 37-year-old journeyman Brian Hoyer or rookie fourth-round pick Aidan O’Connell will start under center.
The Chargers defense has been porous, to say the least, but even without Derwin James (hamstring) and Joey Bosa (hamstring/toe), neither quarterback instills much confidence.
Thus, there’s a very realistic scenario in which the Chargers get ahead big with the Raiders offense sputtering. The game script would likely flip in that case to Kelley getting a heavy workload to churn clock. His potential volume in that scenario is worrisome, which is why I am only putting half a unit on the under.
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