The build up to Super Bowl 60 has just begun, but I'm already on NFL player props for Seahawks vs Patriots.
Below, I have laid out my first Super Bowl prop for Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who's been key to New England's success all season. Find out how I'm betting him in the rushing yards market against the Seahawks below.
Super Bowl Props: Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Rhamondre Stevenson has been on fire over the last four games heading into the Super Bowl, but I think we could see a dip in both his volume and efficiency in the big game against the Seahawks.
First, let’s talk about volume.
The Patriots went 14-3 in the regular season and have won six straight games; as a result, they’ve played with the lead 62% of the time this season. That’s allowed them to lean on the run at a higher rate due to game script.
However, they still ranked fifth in pass rate over expected (PROE) — if they do get into a trailing script, we could see their designed rush attempt volume to RBs specifically plummet.
We also saw rookie TreVeyon Henderson phased out in the AFC Championship Game with just three carries while Stevenson totaled 25. A lot of that shift likely had to do with the conditions in Denver and the massive amount of snow we saw in the second half, when the Pats were simply trying to run out the clock and lean on their defense to keep Jarrett Stidham from beating them.
As rare 4.5-point underdogs for the Super Bowl, I’m projecting the Patriots to play with the lead at a 30% lower rate than usual, which is very high for this late in the season.
That means I’m projecting their overall dropback rate to go up and their designed rush attempts to go down, with Henderson mixing in closer to his typical role. That leaves Stevenson projected closer to 13–13.5 rush attempts, making under 14.5 rush attempts (current line) very much in play.
The reason I’d rather fade his yardage, though, is that I also expect a dip in efficiency. Stevenson has been great this season — averaging 4.6 yards per carry — but the Pats have had by far the easiest schedule this season. The Seahawks defense ranks first in DVOA and will be his toughest matchup to date.
Stevenson led the NFL with a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes. However, Seattle uses a stacked box at the second-lowest rate in the league and tends to use seven defenders in the box at one of the highest rates.
When facing seven defenders in the box, Stevenson's efficiency plummets, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which ranks 45th out of 48 qualified RBs. He also runs inside the tackles at the fourth-highest rate — essentially straight into the teeth of the defense — which will make it tougher to rack up explosive runs.
If Stevenson struggles early, we could also see Henderson mix in more, which would further lower Stevenson's volume.
I’m projecting Stevenson closer to 49.5 rushing yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 56.5.
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
