Ravens vs Buccaneers Picks, Predictions: 3 Thursday Night Football Best Bets
Pictured: Lamar Jackson (left) and Tom Brady.
- Tom Brady and the Bucs are home favorites against the Ravens.
- Our staff has identified its favorite Ravens vs. Buccaneers picks tonight.
- Get our Thursday Night Football best bets below.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds
|Moneyline||+114 / -134|
|Odds via FanDuel|
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Picks
Billy Ward: Much has been said about the demise of Tom Brady this season. He's looked like a shell of himself, and the numbers bear that out: his yards per attempt is the lowest it's been in 20 years.
However, an underrated component of Tampa's struggles this year has been their offensive line. Last season, they ranked fifth in adjusted line yards — this year they're down to 28th. To Brady's credit, he's been able to get rid of the football quickly, taking just 10 sacks on the season. However, that obscures how bad the Bucs line has been in the passing game. They rank 25th in pass block win rate as a unit.
Jackson 40+ Rush Yards & Ravens +3.5
It's hard to see them turning anything around until they get those issues fixed. Brady is quite possibly the least athletic quarterback in the NFL, and absolutely needs time to let plays develop. This week, they'll be without starting center Ryan Jensen (IR) as well as both of their top two left guards, creating big problems in the middle of the offensive line.
Additionally, starting cornerback Carlton Davis and safety Antoine Winfield are both also ruled out for this one, creating problems in the defensive backfield. Every team is dealing with injuries (especially on Thursday games), but Tampa's situation is especially dire due to the clusters around certain position groups.
I'd take this one down to +1.5 at -110.
Tanner McGrath: The public sees this game and sees Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady. Two of the sport’s biggest names in Primetime.
I see two poorly-built offenses, filled with weapons but without the tools needed to move the chains.
And I want to bet the under.
Ravens +1.5 | Buccaneers -1.5
Tampa Bay and Baltimore rank 28th and 29th in Offensive Line Yards, respectively. The two are getting stuffed at top-five rates and are bottom-10 in Power Success Rate. These are two bad offensive lines, and it’s taking a toll on both offenses.
Brady doesn’t get sacked because he gets the ball out quickly, but he hasn’t had enough time to push the ball downfield. The Bucs are 26th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric, Brady is on pace to post career lows in Average Depth of Target (7.8) and Yards per Completion (8.9) as a result.
The Ravens have been better offensively but are now injured. Mark Andrews is injured, alongside Gus Edwards, Rashod Bateman, and offensive linemen Ronnie Staley and Ben Cleveland.
Meanwhile, we have two elite pass defenses. Both teams are top-eight in Pass Defense DVOA. While the two are more vulnerable against the run, a run-heavy game script would keep the clock moving and only suppress scoring more.
Our Action PRO projections make this total just 43.5. Plus, it’s always profitable to bet on nighttime unders, which are 14-8 this season and 108-77-3 dating back to 2019.
I’d bet the under at anything above 45.
Charlie DiSturco: One of the players trending up in this Tampa Bay offense is Rachaad White, who has slowly carved out a role as backup to Leonard Fournette.
Last week was the lowest snap discrepancy between running backs — Fournette out-snapped White 40-29 — as White rushed for a career-high 24 yards on six carries. He finished with six more yards than Fournette on three fewer touches.
Rachaad White Over 19.5 Rushing Yards
The Buccaneers need a change and it could very well come at the running back position. Fournette has just 82 yards on 29 rushes over the last two weeks while White has been effective in limited opportunities.
Action Labs projects White to rush for 24 yards, an 8.7% edge on the current market. Following the narrative of a Bucs win, they should run a bit more.
If White’s snap share continues to rise, this number should go over with ease. Buy your stock on the rookie now before it’s too late.