Chiefs vs Eagles Picks: Expert’s First 3 Super Bowl Bets on Miles Sanders, Tommy Townsend, More
- After days of running his numbers and data, Sean Koerner has found three Super Bowl picks.
- All of Koerner's first Chiefs vs. Eagles picks are player props, highlighted by a Miles Sanders bet.
- Check out Koerner's Super Bowl player props below.
Chiefs vs Eagles Odds
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
To Lead Game in Rushing Yards (+175; BetMGM)
My Super Bowl sim projects Sanders’ fair odds closer to +150 for this market. He offers a ton of upside because his usage has been capped this year due to the Eagles being involved in so many blowouts.
His rush attempt share among Eagles RBs was 79% when Philly trailed or was winning by fewer than seven points. It fell to 61% when the Eagles were up by at least seven. With the Eagles likely to be involved in a close game and this being the Super Bowl (no reason to limit Sanders’ usage), he should finish closer to his ceiling.
Sanders’ main competition on his own team will probably be Jalen Hurts, but he has outrushed Hurts in three straight games as the quarterback has opted to rush less, likely due to his left shoulder injury.
Sanders has outrushed Hurts in 13-of-17 games (76%) this season. I’m only giving Sanders a 62.5% chance of outrushing Hurts, but still show value on this prop.
Isiah Pacheco is Sanders’ main competition from the Chiefs side. Unlike Sanders, a potential close — or even trailing — game script will negatively impact Pacheco’s rushing production.
The Chiefs pass at the second-highest rate on early downs (in neutral situations), so a close game script means their passing volume will likely be higher than usual. Plus, Pacheco was more involved as a pass-catcher last week (career-high 5/59/0 receiving line), which only hurts his upside in this market.
A close game script also means Jerick McKinnon could rotate in at a higher rate, another factor that lowers Pacheco’s ceiling. And there is a chance Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated – any snaps or touches he gets will only lower the chances of a K.C. player winning this bet.
I love getting Sanders at +175 because he probably doesn’t need to quite go off in order to win. The fact that we should see a close game raises his ceiling and lowers everyone else’s.
It’s the perfect storm for a prop like this, and I would bet it down to my fair line of +150 since I believe there is still upside at that price.
|Super Bowl Rushing Leader||Projected|
You can find this prop under “Player Specials” on BetMGM’s Super Bowl game page.
First Punt Over 46.5 Yards (-118; FanDuel)
Townsend has been phenomenal this season and has cleared this number on 39-of-61 punts (64%).
The Super Bowl will be played indoors at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., which is 1,152’ above sea level. It’s a neutral-to-positive situation where something like wind won’t help or hurt him, while the elevation can only help.
I’m factoring in regression in my sims and have Townsend closer to a 60% chance of clearing this on his first punt, with a median closer to 48.5.
This prop can be found on FanDuel on the game page under the “Special Teams” section.
Pick: Tommy Townsend 1st Punt Over 46.5
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Eagles and Chiefs
Will Both Teams Make a 33-Yard or Longer FG? — NO (-110; DraftKings)
Looking at both teams’ actual game logs, you see Harrison Butker has made a 33-plus yarder in 7-of-15 games (47%) while Jake Elliott has made one in 6-of-18 (33%).
I have this close to a 64% chance of “No” hitting based on both kickers’ stats this season. A lot of this has to do with the Eagles passing up field goals at the highest rate this year. One has to imagine they will be even more aggressive against the Chiefs.
Based on my sims, there’s about a 34% chance either the Chiefs or Eagles don’t make a field goal and this is an automatic winner. There’s around an 8% chance both make a field goal, but one team doesn’t have one 33 yards or longer.
This comes out to around a 42% chance both teams make at least a 33-yard FG, so there’s a 58% chance this bet hits.
This prop can be found on DraftKings in the Super Bowl Specials section under “Kick Props.”
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