Tyler Conklin Player Props: Expert Pick for Jets vs Seahawks
Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New York Jets tight end Tyler Conklin
Tyler Conklin Receiving Yards
|Prop||Tyler Conklin over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)|
|Matchup||Jets vs. Seahawks|
|Day, Time||Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET|
It's been a wild season for Jets fans, experiencing both the highs and lows. Despite all the drama, Tyler Conklin has played a constant role in the passing game and gets a nice spot in Week 17.
For starters: Welcome back, Mike White! Conklin is averaging six targets per game on a 14.3% target share in the three-game sample size. Compared to Zach Wilson's 187.6 passing yards/per game, White has almost doubled the production, averaging 317.3 passing yards/per game on a 62.1% completion rate.
The matchup vs. the Seahawks' defense adds to the upside of White throwing to him. They have been a tight-end funnel, permitting the third-lowest receiving yards/per game against opposing wide receivers.
Rookie Tariq Wollen (56.4 receiving %) does an excellent covering wide and should have his hands busy defending the Jets' wide receivers. He grades as Pro Football Focus' 12th best cornerback in coverage.
On the other hand, tight ends have feasted vs. the Seahawks' defense, which allows the most yards (69.33 yards per game) vs. the position. Recent comparable tight ends, including Foster Moreau, Cade Otteo, Gerald Everett, and Adam Trautman, have recorded at least 30 yards in their matchups.
With a team-low 6.58 average depth-of-target, Conklin gets most of his production in short-yardage situations. The Seahawks rank 29th in DVOA on short passes as opposed to ninth on deep passes, according to Football Outsiders. The below-average linebacker coverage should play to his strengths and allow additional upside thanks to Conklin's 5.1 yards-after-catch (11th most in his position).
I've been targeting tight ends every chance I get vs. the Seahawks, and I see no reason to stop now. Conklin gets a dream spot, and I love his chances of going over his receiving prop.