NFL Props

There is a value opportunity on Mike Evans's receiving yards prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 33.29 receiving yards, while sportsbooks imply 52.51. The model believes there is a 73% chance he records fewer than 45.5 receiving yards, so there is some value on the under at -105. This play is good down to at least -176. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

I was high on Bucky entering his rookie season and thought he could push Rachaad White and potentially leapfrog him. Sure enough, that’s what happened, but I viewed him more as a pass-catching specialist, which overlapped with White’s skill set, since White wasn’t very good on early downs. He’s been struggling in year two, and a lot of that can be chalked up to dealing with nagging injuries and missing multiple games this year. He stepped right back into the lead role in his two games since returning, but the inefficiency as a runner has remained. Out of 45 qualified RBs, he ranks 2nd to last in success rate on runs (only ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson. Too bad Mike Vrabel won’t be reading this pick note lol). Rachaad White ranks 2nd, sandwiched between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, who rank 1st and 3rd. Sean Tucker doesn’t have enough attempts to qualify, but he would be well ahead of Bucky and rank 30th, and Tucker has always profiled as the better short-yardage back of the group. So I think the coaching staff continues to tweak their usage and possibly lets White/Tucker see a bit more early-down and short-yardage work, while focusing on getting Bucky more involved as a pass catcher, where he’s been elite with a league-high 12.9 YAC per reception. We saw them trend toward the more optimal approach last week. Despite going ultra run heavy in the 24-20 loss to the Saints (39 rush attempts to 30 passes), Bucky still only had 15 carries because it was more of a 60/40 split with White on early downs. It’ll be tough for Tampa Bay to rack up nearly 40 carries again this week against Atlanta, in a game where I think Falcons +4.5 is the sharp side. It’ll also be the first time all season they have their top 4 WRs fully healthy in Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and even Jalen McMillan. So I’m projecting them to be a bit more pass heavy, which involves getting Bucky the ball in space in the passing game, and likely keeps White/Tucker involved enough on early downs to cap Bucky’s upside in this market. I’m projecting him closer to 15.4 rush attempts with around a 61% chance to stay under 16.5.

Bucky has his this prop in 10/10 games in his career vs bottom 15 rush defenses…