Updated Super Bowl Odds: Chiefs Leapfrog Patriots as AFC Favorite

Sep 24, 2018 2:29 PM EDT
  • With another big Rams win, Los Angeles' Super Bowl odds have improved from +450 to +300, which is the largest jump of the week.
  • The Chiefs' win, coupled with the Patriots' ugly loss, has resulted in Kansas City (+700) becoming the new favorite in the AFC.
  • The Vikings' historic loss has made them the second-biggest faller of the week, as they've moved from +1000 to +1600.

The Chiefs are freaking legit. The Patriots are … well, let’s just say you can never count them out. Meanwhile, the Rams continue to impress and have solidified themselves as the clear No. 1 team in the NFL.

It’s still very early, but oddsmakers aren’t going to wait around.

We’ve seen some big fluctuations each week and that continues this time around.

All odds via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday at 1 p.m. ET.

A quick explanation on the odds: A $100 bet on +450 odds would return $450, a $100 bet on +1200 odds would return $1,200, etc.

Risers

Los Angeles Rams: +450 to +200 (+15.1% Implied Probability)

These LA Rams aren’t messing around. They’ve been covering their spreads without a problem, scoring at will and have allowed the fewest points in the league.

Add those things together and they have a +66 point differential, which is 20 more than second place and 40 more than third place.

At first, their odds moved from +450 to +300, but they jumped even further to +200 later Monday afternoon.

If the Vikings decide to show up on Thursday, they’ll be tested by one of the NFC’s best teams.

Kansas City Chiefs: +1200 to +700 (+4.8% IP)

Your new AFC favorite! Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense are wheelin’ and dealin’ like there’s no tomorrow. Defenses have not been able to stop the Chiefs’ bevvy of weapons yet.

Mahomes & Co.’s next test will be playing in Denver’s thin air, which has given other teams trouble throughout the years.

Baltimore Ravens: +3000 to +2000 (+1.6% IP)

Speaking about point differentials, the Ravens sneakily have the second-best in the league at +46 (largely thanks to their Week 1 slaughter of the Bills.)

A balanced attack led to a fairly simple victory over the Broncos on Sunday. If the Steelers lose to the Bucs on Monday Night Football, I’d expect Baltimore’s odds to bump up even a little more.


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Fallers

New England Patriots: +600 to +800 (-3.2% IP)

The Patriots’ play has been worrisome to say the least, BUT they still have a few things going for them:

A. They’re the Patriots
2. They’ve sucked in September before and turned out fine
D. In two weeks, TB12 will probably be throwing to Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman

They’re no longer the favorite in their conference, but other than the Chiefs, no preseason AFC contender has excelled.

Minnesota Vikings: +1000 to +1600 (-3.2% IP)

Not a good look for the Vikings this week. First, the intern kid on the Bills’ Twitter account puts out the video of their little plane flying to Wisconsin instead of Minnesota. And the Vikings clap back with a little snark.


I don’t blame them for tweeting back, but I do blame them for losing to the Buffalo Bills by three touchdowns. Worst upset in more than 20 years.

When you lay that big of an egg, your Super Bowl odds are going to take a big hit.

Atlanta Falcons: +1400 to +2500 (-2.9%)

The Falcons’ offense was great against New Orleans (congrats, big achievement), but their overtime loss is not just any old loss.

Atlanta lost at home to the Saints — a big divisional game that could end up having playoff tiebreaker implications down the road.

The Falcons now sit alone in last place in the NFC South, which is once again shaping up to be one of the toughest divisions in the league.

Credit:

Sep 23, 2018; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Demetrius Harris (84) celebrates with running back Kareem Hunt (27) after scoring a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42
+3
CIN
BAL
43.5
-4.5
44
-5.5
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
46.5
+5
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
49.5
+4.5
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
50
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
51
-1
TB
NYG
52
PK
53
-3
OAK
ARI
41
-4
41
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
46.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-7.5
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63
-3.5