The Washington Commanders (3-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) face off on Monday Night Football on October 27. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The game will broadcast on ESPN.
The Chiefs are 11.5-point favorites on the spread over the Commanders (Chiefs -11.5); the over/under is 48 points. Kansas City is a 800 moneyline favorite and Washington is a +550 underdog.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview and Commanders vs Chiefs prediction.
Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction
- Commanders vs Chiefs pick: Commanders +12.5
My Commanders vs Chiefs best bet is on the Commanders to cover the spread. Find the best Monday Night Football odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs Chiefs Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Commanders vs Chiefs Monday Night Football Preview
The Chiefs offense is firing on all cylinders — and that should terrify the rest of the league.
With Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy back in the lineup, Patrick Mahomes looks like vintage Mahomes, once again attacking downfield and putting up video-game numbers.
Still, this line feels inflated.
Just last week, Kansas City closed as an 11.5-point home favorite against a broken Raiders team that was missing most of its offensive playmakers.
The Commanders have been disappointing this season, no doubt, but they’re still a clear step above the current version of Las Vegas — even with Marcus Mariota under center.
And honestly, Mariota is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He’s shown he can keep the Commanders offense humming, and Washington’s attack should get a major boost tonight with Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin expected back. That’s a huge lift for a passing game that’s lacked explosiveness in recent weeks.
The gap between Mariota and Jayden Daniels — who’s been roughly league average this year — isn’t all that wide. The sample size is small (just under 150 snaps), but Mariota actually leads all quarterbacks over the past two seasons in the EPA+CPOE composite metric.
Mariota also ranks top three in completion percentage, success rate and air yards. With his efficiency and the return of key weapons, this offense can absolutely move the ball.
Washington’s rushing attack should also play a big role here.
The Commanders rank fifth in rushing success rate and 10th in Rush EPA, which sets up well against a Kansas City defense that’s struggled in that department (22nd and 24th, respectively). That ability to stay ahead of the chains and sustain long drives could be the key to keeping Mahomes on the sidelines — the best defense against him might just be time of possession.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas City could be shorthanded up front, with both left tackle Josh Simmons and right guard Trey Smith likely sidelined. Those are significant losses against a Washington front that can generate consistent pressure.
Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
This feels like a classic buy-low, sell-high spot on the Chiefs.
The market is sky-high on the Chiefs right now, and no one’s eager to step in front of them — but this number has simply gotten too big.
The Commanders have enough offensive competency and defensive bite to stay within the number — the backdoor should be wide open late if Kansas City gets conservative with a lead.
One final note: special teams could provide a hidden edge here. Washington ranks second in special teams DVOA this season, while Kansas City sits all the way down at 23rd. In a game where every possession matters, that’s not nothing.
I’ll gladly take the points with the desperate road underdog.
Trending: Favorites of 11-plus points off a win of 30 or more (like the Chiefs) have gone just 8-17 (32%) against the spread (ATS) since 2003, failing to cover by more than 3.5 points per game on average.
Pick: Commanders +12.5 (-110)
Spread
The Commanders covering the spread is my pick for this game.
Moneyline
I have no play for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no pick for the game total.
