Best Week 17 Sunday Prop Bets & Picks: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, More

Best Week 17 Sunday Prop Bets & Picks: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, More article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kelvin Harmon

  • Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones and John Ross are among our favorite NFL prop bets for Week 17.
  • Mike Randle analyzes five total props below, complete with picks.

NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.

The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.

One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.

We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

  • Jets at Bills: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Redskins at Cowboys: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Browns at Bengals: 1 pm. ET
  • Packers at Lions: 1:00 pm ET
  • Dolphins at Patriots: 1:00 pm ET

Week 17 NFL Prop Bets & Betting Picks

Here are five props with a Bet Quality of 10 for Sunday’s main slate. This season, props with a grade of 10 are 222-176-6 (56% win rate).

Jets QB Sam Darnold

  • The Opponent: Bills (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-275)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has stated his starters will play in their Week 17 home game against New York, but for how long?

Either way, Jets quarterback Sam Darnold should find the end zone at least once against a Buffalo defense that has allowed at least one passing touchdown in four straight games.

Buffalo’s secondary has been fantastic all season, but it’s hard to envision McDermott playing his starters the majority of time in a meaningless game.

We project Darnold at 1.2 passing touchdowns, which is a full 80% above his implied total. The juice is certainly there, but the huge differential in our projection makes this a worthwhile play.

I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -300.

Redskins WR Kelvin Harmon

  • The Opponent: Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

This receiving yardage prop is attractive only to bettors with a fantasy football background who understand the potential of rookie wide receiver Kelvin Harmon.

The sixth-round pick from N.C. State saw a season-high in receptions (five) and receiving yards (58) in Week 16 against the Giants. With fellow rookie wideout Terry McLaurin ruled out with a concussion, Harmon should see ample opportunity to reach this relatively low receiving total.

Harmon has gained the trust of the coaching staff throughout the season and has recorded four consecutive games with over an 80% snap share.

With starting Dallas cornerback Byron Jones questionable to play with an ankle injury suffered in practice, Harmon should be able to exceed this prop in a projected negative game-script for Washington.

We project Harmon at 49.4 receiving yards, which is 32% over his implied total.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -120.

Bengals WR John Ross

  • The Opponent: Browns (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions (-114)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

I am going back to Cincinnatti’s John Ross, who easily reached this prop last week.

The Browns secondary is tough on opposing fantasy wide receivers, but Ross looks fully healthy after being placed on the injured reserve with a shoulder injury. Prior to that injury, Ross was enjoying a breakout season and had produced the overall WR3 and WR10 performances with 5.5 receptions in each of Cincinnati’s first two games.

Ross took advantage of a limited Cincinnati depth chart in Week 16 with six receptions on 13 targets. In this legendary NFL rivalry game, Ross should see enough action to reach the three-reception mark.

We project Ross at 3.3 receptions, which are 28% over his implied total. Even in his first game back from injury in Week 14 against Cleveland, Ross still managed two receptions.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -125.

Packers RB Aaron Jones

  • The Opponent: Lions (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 2.5 receptions (-130)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

Jones should have a field day against a Lions defense that has been gashed by running backs. Detroit has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs including the third-most receiving yards to the position.

The Green Bay lead running back has enjoyed a breakout season, ranking top 12 in targets and receptions, all while leading all backs with 19 total touchdowns.

We project Jones at 3.3 receptions, which is 20% above his implied total.

I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -150.

Patriots WR Mohamed Sanu

  • The Opponent: Dolphins (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

Always side with the Patriots offense in a “must-win” game. New England will have all the motivation it needs with a bye week available if it can simply beat the Dolphins at home.

Sanu appears finally healthy after battling an ankle sprain. I expect Tom Brady to repeatedly attack a Miami defense that ranks second in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Against difficult matchups the last two weeks in Cincinnati and Buffalo, Sanu saw 13 targets. If he reaches that average of six to seven targets against Miami, Sanu should easily eclipse this receiving yardage total.

We project Sanu for 39.9 receiving yards, which is 36% above his implied total. I would be this 10-rated prop down to -130.

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