What Is Derrick Henry Worth to a Point Spread? Our Projections For Titans Without Star Running Back
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
It’s assumed in most cases that the drop off from one running back to another isn’t worth much to a point spread in the NFL anymore, if anything at all.
Most cases aren’t Derrick Henry.
Henry is expected to miss extended time with surgery scheduled to repair his a broken bone in his foot suffered in Sunday’s win against the Indianapolis Colts.
It’s tough news for a Titans team that relies heavily on the workhorse back. Henry leads the NFL with 219 rushing attempts, 82 more than anyone else in the league. His 937 rushing yards are 353 more than the next-best back. His 10 rushing touchdowns also top the league.
Sportsbooks have already adjusted Tennessee’s Super Bowl odds with BetMGM moving the Titans from +1400 to +1600 following the news. That puts them behind the Bills (+500) and Ravens (+1100) and tied with the Chiefs in the conference despite owning the best record in the AFC.
This year, we’ve seen backup running backs step in with no drop-off from the starter such as D’Ernest Johnson taking over for Nick Chubb or Khalil Herbert replacing David Montgomery.
Will that be the case for the Titans with Jeremy McNichols or a potential free agent or trade as a replacement?
Here’s how two of our experts who power our NFL power ratings are adjusting the Titans based on Henry’s absence. The Titans face the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football this week.
What’s Derrick Henry Worth to the Spread?
Sean Koerner’s Adjustment: 0.5-1 point
“He provides value even when he doesn’t touch the ball. The passing attack benefits from his presence on play action. How much he will impact the spread this week will depend which running back they end up signing or trading for and if Julio Jones is able to return.”
Travis Reed’s Adjustment: 0.5 points, maybe less
“I actually think this could be good for the Titans to actually open up the offense some.”