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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Coyotes (March 5)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Coyotes (March 5) article feature image
Credit:

Andre Ringuette. Pictured: Matt Murray of the Ottawa Senators.

Senators vs. Coyotes Odds

Senators Odds -115
Coyotes Odds -105
Over/Under 5.5 (-120/+100)
Time 4 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Atlantic Division’s sixth-place Ottawa Senators travel to Arizona to take on the Central Division’s eighth-place Coyotes. This meeting will be the first between these two teams this season.

Will we see a game filled with goal-scoring and fast-paced action, or will both goaltenders step up in a low-scoring affair?

Senators Slumping

The Ottawa Senators enter this matchup on a three-game losing streak following Thursday’s 3-0 loss to the Florida Panthers. Thursday’s game was yet another low-scoring contest for the Senators who have now seen six or fewer total goals scored in 16 of their last 20 games.

A big reason for the low-scoring games recently has been the resurgence of tonight’s projected starting goaltender Matt Murray this season. Currently, Murray boasts an impressive 0.915 Save Percentage and ranks sixth among starting goaltenders in five-on-five Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAx).

Murray has also done a good job on the road as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in five of Murray’s eight road starts this season. Ottawa’s offense in front of Murray, however, has been terrible this year.

This season, Ottawa ranks 27th in five-on-five Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF) and 26th in Average Expected Goal Value of five-on-five shot attempts. Their offense has been in particularly bad form on the road recently as they are averaging just two goals scored per game over their last seven road contests.


Coyotes Offense Needs Improvement

The Arizona Coyotes enter this matchup following Thursday’s huge 2-1 upset victory over the Colorado Avalanche. Like the Senators, this low-scoring game was not a rare occurrence for the Coyotes.

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in nine of Arizona’s last 13 games. Despite their poor defense, the Coyotes have been bailed out by excellent goaltending recently.

Tonight’s starting goaltender for Arizona is Scott Wedgewood, who has recently found a good rhythm between the pipes. Over his last 10 home starts, Wedgewood has produced an outstanding 0.928 Save Percentage.

Across those 10 starts, there have been six or fewer total goals scored eight times. Perhaps the even bigger factor in these low-scoring games has been the Coyotes’ horrible offense.

This season, the Coyotes rank dead last in five-on-five Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF) and 27th in Average Expected Goal Value of five-on-five shot attempts. Over their last 10 home games, Arizona is averaging just 2.3 goals scored per game.

Senators vs. Coyotes Pick

Historically, this matchup has been a low-scoring affair as there have been six or fewer total goals scored in six of the last seven meetings between. Expect that trend to continue tonight with two solid goaltenders and two horrible offenses.

I got this number at six before It quickly dropped to five and a half. I personally think It is worth laying the few extra cents to take the total at six as I would not play this number at five and a half.

Pick: Senators/Coyotes Under 6 (-130) | Play up to (-140)

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