The 2026 midterm primary season reaches a major milestone on Tuesday, August 18, as Florida voters head to the polls to determine key party nominations for governor, the U.S. Senate, and critical congressional and local seats ahead of the November 3 general election.
With incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis barred from seeking re-election due to constitutional term limits, the battle for the Sunshine State's executive mansion has generated intense national interest.
While both major parties feature crowded slates, prediction markets — including Kalshi and Polymarket — are pointing toward decisive victories in the top-of-the-ticket primary battles.
Florida Republican Governor Primary: Donalds Dominates
With DeSantis concluding his second term, U.S. Representative Byron Donalds has emerged as the clear front-runner to secure the Republican nomination. Donalds holds a commanding lead in primary polling over a broad field of primary opponents — an advantage clearly echoed in live prediction market probabilities.
Donalds, who carries the endorsement of President Donald Trump, currently trades at a 98.6% probability on Kalshi and 99% on Polymarket.
His closest primary challengers remain in single digits across both exchanges. Entrepreneur James Fishback sits near 1.5%, while Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins trades under 0.5%.
While undecided voters could marginally shift final vote totals, polling consistency and market liquidity indicate a near-certain primary victory for Donalds, as Republicans look to maintain control of a governorship they have held continuously since 1999.
Florida Democratic Governor Primary: David Jolly Leads
On the Democratic side, the gubernatorial primary appears equally settled. Former U.S. Representative David Jolly has built an overwhelming lead over his primary opponents, effectively positioning him as the party’s presumptive nominee for November.
Jolly previously served in Congress as a Republican representing Florida's 13th Congressional District from 2014 to 2017 before leaving the GOP in 2018 and becoming a prominent critic of Donald Trump.
On Kalshi, contracts for a Jolly victory sit at 98.6%, while Polymarket prices his odds at 100%. His main primary rival, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, suspended his campaign in early June following a cancer diagnosis.
Florida U.S. Senate Special Election: Moody and Vindman On Top
Federal legislative races are also drawing significant capital on forecasting platforms. Tuesday's ballot features a high-stakes special election primary to fill the remaining two years of the U.S. Senate term vacated by Marco Rubio following his appointment as Secretary of State.
- Republican Primary: Current U.S. Senator Ashley Moody—appointed by DeSantis to temporarily hold the seat—is the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination outright. Moody holds 99% odds on Polymarket and 98.4% on Kalshi.
- Democratic Primary: Retired Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who gained national prominence as a key witness during Trump's first impeachment trial, leads the field with 93% odds on Kalshi and 94% on Polymarket. State Representative Angie Nixon of Jacksonville trails in secondary position with 7.8% on Kalshi and 7% on Polymarket.
Florida Governor Election Results 2022: Interactive Map
Understanding Florida’s 2026 political landscape begins with the shifting dynamics of the last election cycle. In 2022, Republicans established dominant margins across previously competitive counties, transforming the Sunshine State from a traditional swing battleground into a firm conservative stronghold.
As voters head to the polls for the 2026 primaries, analyzing the 2022 interactive map below provides essential baseline context for how county-level voting trends, realignment, and voter turnout could shape the general election matchup this November.
Florida Primary Election Day: Voting Guide
What time do polling places open in Florida?
The polls are open on Election Day, from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. (local time). Any voters waiting in line at 7:00 p.m. will have the opportunity to cast a ballot. To verify exact operating hours, precinct locations, or early voting schedules, consult your local Supervisor of Elections or access the Florida Division of Elections Portal.
What identification do I need to bring to vote in Florida?
You must bring a current and valid photo ID with signature. To verify acceptable forms of identification or review provisional voting rules, check the official guidelines on the Florida Department of State Election Day Voting Page.
How can I check my Florida voter registration status?
You can confirm your registration status, party affiliation, and assigned polling location online by searching the state's database via the Florida Voter Lookup Search.
