Gas prices are rising again, and another seven cents would put the national average above $4.40. Yet Kalshi’s September market gives that outcome only slightly better than even odds.
The AAA national average is $4.434, and Kalshi gives roughly a 62% chance that gas trades above $4.60 before year-end. That requires another 16.6 cents, or 3.7%, with three months left.
The 2026 high is $4.564, so $4.60 only asks for a modest new high.
The rest of the ladder looks very different.
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US Gas Prices Right Now
The strange part is at the top. Above $5.60 costs 11.5 cents and Above $5.80 costs 10.5. The market is charging almost the same price for a 26% rally as a 31% rally.
That makes sense if those rungs are really pricing the same event: another major oil supply shock.
AAA’s all-time national record is $5.0165. So once you get above $5.20, the board is no longer pricing ordinary gasoline volatility. It is mostly pricing another Hormuz-style escalation.
That creates two different Q4s. In one, gas stays volatile around current levels and maybe makes a modest new high. In the other, crude spikes and gas blows through the old record.
Why $4.60 stands out
That is why I prefer the bottom of the ladder.
Gas does not need another geopolitical crisis to trade above $4.60. It only needs a 3.7% move, and prices have already shown they can move much more than that quickly.
Refining margins are also still elevated, while gasoline inventories remain tight. That means pump prices can move higher even without a huge jump in crude.
The risk is seasonality. Gas has already slipped from about $4.48 last week to $4.434 today, and autumn normally brings weaker demand and lower prices.
So the trade is basically a race between the seasonal fade and one more burst of volatility.
The Trade
Buy Above $4.60 Yes around 61–62 cents.
This is my favorite position on the board because it does not require the shock scenario.
At 62 cents, gas only needs to rise another 16.6 cents at any point before December 31. With three months left, elevated refining margins and a market still sensitive to Hormuz headlines, that feels much more achievable than betting on $5.60 or $5.80.
If gas keeps fading below roughly $4.40 and the October EIA outlook turns more bearish on oil, the thesis weakens.
But at current levels, $4.60 does not need a crisis. It just needs one more volatile week.
