The national average price of gas sits at $3.89, and the market has decided it's going higher before the month is out. The market asks: where does AAA's national average for regular gas sit on July 30?
The $4.00 line is priced at 91%, the $4.10 line at 62%, and the $4.20 line at 32%. Two days ago, the $4.00 touch was a coin flip at 56%. Now it's a near-lock, a big jump in a short time.
The whole ladder moved together, $4.00 up 54 points, $4.10 up 34, $4.20 up 19, the entire curve shifting up. There's a ceiling, though. The $4.50 line is priced under 5%; the market is saying higher, but not quite to the May peak of $4.56. Sign up today with Kalshi promo codeACTION to get started with a $15 bonus.
US Gas Prices This Month at Kalshi
The pump is following crude, and crude is following the Strait of Hormuz.
Renewed US-Iran fighting pushed Brent Crude to $85.92 on July 14, a one-month high, after Trump called the June ceasefire "over." Ship traffic through the strait has fallen to a halt after it was slowly increasing following the MOU between the US and Iran.
Oil prices had sunk after the June ceasefire. The two-day repricing on Kalshi lines up almost exactly with the July 8 US strikes and the July 13–14 escalation that followed; the odds moved when the news did.
July is peak summer driving season, when demand is at its seasonal high and refiners are already stretched, so the Middle East premium is landing on top of a market that was tight to begin with.
Here's the situation: the ladder is really pricing: retail prices lag crude by a week or two, so the barrel spike from the last few sessions is still working its way to the pump. The national average has been climbing roughly 3 cents a day since the fighting restarted. That lag is the whole trade. Even if oil cools from here, the crude already in the system keeps the pump grinding higher into the end of July.
Only one thing reverses it: a real ceasefire. Trump left the door open, saying the US would keep negotiating, and a deal that reopens the strait would bring Brent Crude prices back down and stall the price increase, but would it be soon enough before July 30?
The Trade
Spot at $3.89 rising ~3¢ a day makes the $4.00 Yes at 93¢ a near-certainty, but seven cents of return might not be worth the risk, a sudden ceasefire is the one thing that stops the climb. The better trade is the $4.10 Yes at 63¢: the retail lag means last week's crude spike is still feeding the pump, and $4.10 is barely a week of the current pace away.
The $4.20 Yes at 35¢ is the lottery on Hormuz staying severely disrupted through month-end. News happens fast and the situation in the Middle East can change on a dime, so size conservatively. Not financial advice.
What the price is saying right now
- Above $4.00: 91% — up 54c on the move (56% two days ago)
- Above $4.10: 62% — up 34c, the live bracket
- Above $4.20: 32% — up 19c
- Volume: $235,189
- Settles: July 30 on AAA's national daily average
