The Kalshi market for "Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?" quickly became one of the hottest political contracts on the platform today.
Here's why, and what you need to know about the candidates driving the odds. The prediction market is live, the news is breaking, and traders are moving fast.
What Just Happened: Bondi Out as AG
President Donald Trump ousted Pam Bondi as U.S. Attorney General, driven by dissatisfaction with how aggressively she pursued his priorities at the Justice Department, and shocking the Kalshi markets surrounding the next Trump Cabinet member to be shown the door. Trump confirmed the move on Truth Social, saying Bondi will move to a role in the private sector: "We love Pam, and she will be transitioning to a much needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future." Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has stepped in as acting AG.
This is the second Attorney General departure of Trump's second term. Bondi was confirmed with a 54–46 vote last February, after Trump's initial pick, former Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, withdrew from consideration amid misconduct allegations.
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The Top Candidates for Trump's New Attorney General
Lee Zeldin is the frontrunner, and White House officials have coalesced around the EPA administrator as the likely permanent pick.
Trump met with him on Tuesday.
Zeldin has served at the EPA since January 2025, where he oversaw sweeping deregulation, rolling back environmental rules on emissions and pollution. His appeal to Trump is rooted in loyalty as he defended Trump during both impeachments and voted against certifying the 2020 election results.
However, the knock against him is his thin legal experience. He served as a military prosecutor in the Army JAG Corps, but has never been a traditional prosecutor, which could unsettle career officials at the DOJ.
Todd Blanche is the interim and a dark horse. Trump described his former personal criminal defense attorney as "a very talented and respected Legal Mind" in the Truth Social post announcing Bondi's departure. Blanche has obvious appeal: he's already inside the building, already Senate-confirmed, and has Trump's deep personal trust. The case for Blanche on Kalshi is an "acting-to-permanent" argument. Trump has done it before, and Blanche would avoid the friction of another Senate confirmation fight.
Here's a handy tool that can help you convert prediction market odds to American odds.
Why Traders Are Watching This Market
Political prediction markets thrive on uncertainty with high-stakes outcomes, and this one has it all. The Attorney General runs the Department of Justice, the FBI, and the nation's prosecution machinery. Whoever Trump picks next will shape everything from the ongoing Epstein files saga to how aggressively the DOJ pursues Trump's political enemies heading into the 2026 midterms. Democrats and voting rights groups have expressed alarm that the White House may seek to use the DOJ and FBI to intervene in November's elections.
For traders, this isn't just a parlor game; it's a market with real downstream consequences for other political contracts across the platform. There's also a speed element. Trump moves quickly on personnel decisions, and a Senate confirmation process will need to unfold. Traders who correctly identify the nominee early stand to profit before the market converges.
Keep reading: Election Markets at Kalshi
Final Thoughts on Trump's New AG on Kalshi
The Kalshi contract is essentially a real-time poll of informed opinion on one of the best political prediction market sites. Zeldin enters as the heavy favorite, with CNN, the New York Times, CBS, and ABC all pointing in his direction. But Trump's history of last-minute pivots, remember, Gaetz was his first pick for this very role, means the market is unlikely to fully converge until a formal announcement.
Traders bullish on Zeldin are betting that the insider reporting is accurate and that his existing Senate confirmation gives him the path of least resistance. Traders backing the field or Blanche are wagering that Trump surprises, as he often does.
The clock is ticking, and these markets move fast when a name gets officially floated from the White House podium.
