Thursday's three big earnings reports will answer some key macro questions. The main slate is Thursday: TSMC and UnitedHealth before the open, Netflix after the close.
Polymarket has all three beating, 95% on TSMC, 82% on UnitedHealth, 74% on Netflix, but the beat is the least interesting thing about any of them. This week, the three prints are really three separate macro data points on AI capex, on managed-care margins, and on streaming's ad engine, and each guidance is where most of the eyes will be once again.
Here's a breakdown of how you can trade earnings reports on Polymarket, and use our promo code to add some extra money to your wallet.
This Week's Earnings Report Slate
TSM — TSMC · Thu, pre-market
The most confident beat on the board at 95%, on a $3.88 EPS bar against a consensus near $3.80 and revenue around $40B, up roughly 32% year over year. This is the cleanest read on the AI buildout there is: TSMC prints the chips for every hyperscaler, so its CoWoS packaging capacity and HPC revenue mix are the tell on whether AI demand still outruns supply. The 95% beat is as close to a free 5% return as you can find this week, but the guidance is an important signal on whether the AI capex cycle has a ceiling yet.
UNH — UnitedHealth · Thu, pre-market
Polymarket prices an 82% beat on a $4.85 estimate, with revenue near $110.8B and EPS seen up about 18.6% off a year-ago quarter that got crushed. The number that matters isn't EPS, it's the medical care ratio, the share of premiums paid back out in claims. 2025 was the year Medicare Advantage utilization blew that ratio out; 2026 is the recovery trade. Options price about a 6% swing on the the release, which tells you the market trusts the earnings more than it trusts the comeback story.
Deep Dive Buy: NFLX
Netflix reports Thursday after the close.
Polymarket puts the beat at 74% against a $0.79 EPS bar, with revenue seen up 13.5% to about $12.58B. That's the least-confident beat of the three, but the options market is pricing an 8% to 10% move on the release. So the market says "probably clears it" while the options contracts say "brace for a double-digit swing."
The potential stock move isn't about EPS. Netflix reaffirmed a 31.5% full-year operating margin and a $50.7–51.7B revenue range, so the model is mostly set. What's live is the ad tier: more than 250 million monthly active viewers on ads, over half of new sign-ups taking the ad plan, and a $3B ad-revenue target for the year that the Street wants proof on. Content amortization is expected to have peaked this quarter, which means the back-half margin story rides on whether ad revenue scales as content cost growth decelerates.
The Trade to Make
The 74% beat is probably priced fairly here; I would lean NO at a high upside 26% if I had to. The stock's reaction hangs on the ad number and the H2 guide; with an 8–10% implied move priced in, the print doesn't have to miss to sell off.
A trade structure might look like: Buy YES on TSMC to beat at 95%, with whatever your dollar return would be on that trade, buy NO on Netflix around 26%.
Not financial advice.
