The week of August 3rd is proving to be another loaded earnings week; let's break it down as traders up their ante on Polymarket.
Here's a breakdown of how you can trade earnings reports on Polymarket, and use our promo code to add some extra money to your wallet.
This Week's Earnings Report Slate
DDOG, Datadog · Thu, pre-market
Polymarket prices the beat at 96% on a $0.58 non-GAAP bar, which is exactly consensus and exactly the middle of the company's own $0.57 to $0.59 guide. Datadog has cleared the bar four quarters running; revenue is seen near $1.079B, and full-year guidance was already raised to $4.30B to $4.34B. The 96% is close to free money, and the actual question is whether AI-native customers are still adding spend at a 26% earnings growth rate.
COP, ConocoPhillips · Thu, pre-market
The beat is priced at 87% on a $2.88 non-GAAP bar, against a Street number sitting between $2.89 and $2.96. That is a one-to-eight-cent cushion, and the estimate range runs from $2.07 to $3.42. The year-ago quarter printed $1.42, so this is a straight read on the energy shock that has been repricing rate cut and inflation markets all summer. 87% for a penny of headroom on a spread that wide is a high price.
CELH, Celsius Holdings · Thu, pre-market
This one is a literal coin flip at 50%, and the bar is GAAP $0.39 while consensus adjusted EPS sits at $0.42 to $0.44. Revenue is seen up 20% to $887.7M on distribution gains and summer shelf resets, and the trailing four-quarter surprise averages 58%, but adjusted beats do not settle a GAAP contract.
Deep dive: FLUT
Flutter reports before the US open on Wednesday pre-market.
Polymarket prices the beat at 82% on a $0.52 non-GAAP bar. The stock closed at $104.81 on Monday against a 52-week high of $313.69, down roughly half on the year, after 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.97B landed a half-billion short of the $3.5B the Street had penciled in. Flutter has committed about $300M to prediction market losses this year, and FanDuel Predicts, launched with CME last December, has barely registered revenue.
Prediction markets captured an estimated 27% of US sports bets during the World Cup, up nine points from the start of 2026, and Kalshi topped both FanDuel and DraftKings in daily app users during the tournament.
So the beat market and the equity are pricing two different quarters. 82% says the EPS line clears, but the data says they are losing market share.
The Trade to Make
Buy NO on the FLUT beat. It costs 18.5 cents and pays a dollar if Flutter comes in under $0.52, so a win returns about 5 to 1.
The case for the miss: Flutter swung to a $310M net loss last year; it is absorbing roughly $300M of prediction market spend in 2026, and Q1 sports results already ran against it.
What kills the trade: group revenue still grew 17% year over year last quarter on the Snai and Betnacional deals, and a clean iGaming quarter clears $0.52 with no help from the sportsbook.
Not financial advice.
