The 2026-27 Premier League season has reached Gameweek 4, and we have a mix of moneylines and totals backed by clear data from the opening three weeks.
Below, I’ll break down my top four Premier League best bets for Gameweek 4. Let's get into it.
Premier League Best Bets
The club logos in the table below represent each match that our soccer betting staff is targeting from today's games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Match | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Sat: 10:00 a.m. | |
  | Sat: 10:00 a.m. | |
  | Sat: 12:30 p.m. | |
  | Sat: 3:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chelsea vs. Hull City
Everything about this matchup points toward a comfortable Chelsea win. Hull have been one of the surprises of the early season — unbeaten, yet to concede a goal — but the underlying numbers tell a very different story.
Hull have conceded 5.05 expected goals from 45 shots across three matches, yet have somehow turned that level of pressure into three clean sheets. That is not sustainable.
Chelsea have generated 5.56 expected goals from 48 shots, created nine big chances, and scored eight goals in three matches.
Cole Palmer has 15 goal involvements in 15 Premier League appearances against newly-promoted teams, including nine goals scored. Hull have never won in 18 league visits to Stamford Bridge.
Back Chelsea to win by two or more.
Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (-160)
Liverpool vs. Fulham
Fulham have lost all three of their opening Premier League matches, conceding seven goals, and are yet to register a single point.
Liverpool have scored at least twice in every competitive match under Andoni Iraola, and Alexander Isak has hit the ground running with four scores in three league games, including a brace inside 9 minutes at Ipswich last week.
Four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these two sides have produced over 2.5 goals.
Liverpool at home, in form, against a Fulham side that has conceded in every match — back the result and the goal total, parlayed at -120.
Pick: Liverpool ML / Over 2.5 Goals (-120)
Aston Villa vs. Nottingham Forest
Two winless sides with struggling attacks. Aston Villa have failed to score in any of their three Premier League matches this season, with their first goal of the campaign finally arriving in a midweek Champions League win at Club Brugge.
Nottingham Forest have scored just two goals in four games under Oliver Glasner, and are still waiting for their first league win.
Projected goals for this fixture sit at just 0.73 combined xG for Forest and 1.12 for Villa, producing an expected combined total well below 2.5.
The under at -120 between two of the division's lowest-scoring sides is the play.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-120)
Sunderland vs. Arsenal
Arsenal are the most defensively airtight team in the Premier League, and it led them to a league title last season. In three league games, they have conceded just 1.12 expected goals in total and have kept clean sheets in two of those three outings.
Sunderland have scored just four goals this season, and the statistical model projects them at just 0.61 expected goals in this fixture — the lowest figure for any team in the entire Matchday.
Arsenal have won their last 17 consecutive Premier League meetings with Sunderland, and three of their last four away wins have finished 1-0.
Arsenal winning a low-scoring match, under 3.5 goals at -105, is a very clean play.
Pick: Arsenal ML / Under 3.5 Goals (-110)
