The 2026-27 Premier League season has reached Gameweek 5, and we have a mix of moneylines and totals backed by clear data from the opening four weeks.
The last full slate before the international break. Four picks to close out the month strong. Let's get into it.
Premier League Best Bets
The club logos in the table below represent each match that I'm targeting this weekend. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Match | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Friday: 3:00 p.m. | |
  | Saturday: 10:00 a.m. | |
  | Saturday: 12:30 p.m. | |
  | Sunday: 9:00 a.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Brentford vs. Chelsea
The data on this one is overwhelming. Chelsea have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals in all 4 of their Premier League matches this season. No team in the division has been involved in more goals, with 10 scored and nine conceded. They have gone 20 consecutive league games without a clean sheet.
Brentford have seen both teams score in all 5 of their recent matches across all competitions and have scored in every game this season. The last four Premier League meetings between these two sides at Brentford’s stadium have all ended in draws with multiple goals. Chelsea's front three of Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, and Morgan Rogers have combined for 10 goal involvements in 4 league games.
Brentford will score. Chelsea will score. Back the goals.
Pick: Both Teams to Score / Over 2.5 Goals (-175)
Brighton vs. Arsenal
Arsenal are the only team in the Premier League with a perfect record — 4 wins, 4 clean sheets, 12 points from 12. They have conceded just 1 goal all season and allowed opponents a combined 1.12 expected goals across 3 league matches.
Brighton have been excellent in attack, thrashing both Aston Villa 4-0 and Coventry City 5-0, but they've recently conceded 4 to Chelsea and 2 to Manchester United in the cup. Arsenal rotated heavily midweek in the Carabao Cup, which means their starters should arrive at the Amex at close to full strength.
-145 on the league leaders, on form, with a fully rested squad? Back the Gunners.
Pick: Arsenal ML (-145)
Nottingham Forest vs. Coventry
This is as clean a play as you'll find this weekend. Coventry are the only team in the Premier League yet to register a single point, a single goal, or a single win. They have lost all 4 of their opening matches, conceded 10 goals, and were demolished 5-0 by Brighton last weekend before losing 3-1 to Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup in midweek. If they lose without scoring on Saturday, they will become only the second club in Premier League history to lose their opening five games without scoring.
Forest have been inconsistent at times, but they’re at home, where they have dominated the head-to-head historically with 32 wins in 48 meetings at the City Ground. They should win with at least 2 goals.
Pick: Forest ML / Forest Team Total Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City vs. Sunderland
Manchester City and Arsenal are the only two teams in the Premier League with perfect records. City have scored 8 goals and conceded just 2 in those 4 matches, and analysts project them as the clear contenders to challenge Arsenal for the title.
Sunderland have shown some spirit this season, registering a 1-0 win over Fulham and a draw at Leeds. But they have won just 1 of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Manchester City, and a trip to the Etihad is a completely different proposition.
City have the firepower to make this comfortable. Erling Haaland leads the Premier League Golden Boot race with 4 goals, so he’ll be poaching for more.
-1.5 at -120 is a number worth backing on a side this dominant at home.
Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (-120)
