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Bayern Munich-Dortmund Betting Odds and Preview: Breaking Down Der Klassiker

  • Dortmund have regained a two-point advantage over Bayern Munich at the top of Germany's Bundesliga and could extend the lead to five points with a win Saturday at the Allianz Arena (12:30 p.m. ET on FOX).
  • This will be the 100th league meeting between the two clubs, known as "Der Klassiker" (German Clasico), and Bayern Munich are the -190 favorites to win.

Dortmund won the first meeting between these teams back in October, a thrilling 3-2 victory on their home turf, but Bayern Munich won the previous three contests by a combined score of 13-2.

Saturday’s match will be the 100th time these teams square off in Bundesliga action with Bayern Munich winning 45 times compared to Dortmund’s 25. The clubs have drawn on 29 occasions though it has only happened once in the last six seasons.

Top of Bundesliga Table

Prior to the season, Bayern Munich were -700 favorites to win the league with Dortmund next closest to them at +500. Entering September, Bayern were all the way up to -1500 odds while Dortmund were available at +1200.

Bayern’s odds were still as high as -275 before last weekend when the teams were tied at the top of the league, but those crashed down to -165 following a 1-1 draw at Freiburg.

Dortmund subsequently improved from +220 to +140, roughly a 10% change in probability.

Saturday’s Betting Odds and Over/Under

Open: Bayern -180, Dortmund +490, Draw +365, Over/Under 3.5 (u-140)
Current: Bayern -190, Dortmund +500, Draw +375, Over/Under 3.5 (u-140)

Bayern Munich opened as sizable -180 favorites and, although initial line movement dropped them to -170, a wave of bets pushed them to -190 by Monday afternoon.

Goals are expected with a high over/under of 3.5 goals, and these teams have gone over that total in the last four head-to-heads.

Key Injuries

Dortmund will be without defenders Achraf Hakimi (foot) and Abdou Diallo (muscle), who both left Saturday’s win over Wolfsburg with injuries. Christian Pulisic (thigh), Maximilian Philipp (knee) and Lukasz Piszczek (heel) are all still out as well for Dortmund.

Bayern Munich goalkeeper Manuel Neuer (calf) missed Wednesday’s DFB Pokal Quarterfinal, but is expected to start in net on Saturday. David Alaba (thigh) and Arjen Robben (calf) did not start Wednesday’s match either, but should be ready to go against Dortmund.

Betting Market Breakdown

There was some early, notable line movement on both sides with Dortmund dropping from +490 to +450, followed by Bayern Munich increasing from -170 to -190.

Dortmund’s defensive injuries surely had something to do with the eventual shift toward Bayern Munich, but the visitors will have the advantage of a week off.

Meanwhile, Bayern Munich had to play a DFB Pokal quarterfinal match on Wednesday night in which they were a man down for nearly 80 minutes. After blowing leads of 2-1 and 4-2, Bayern still managed to secure a wild 5-4 victory over Heidenheim to move into the semifinals, but it was far tougher than they would have liked.

The eye test says Dortmund are likely over-performing this season and the stats cater to that as well. Their xGD (expected goal differential) is just +24 compared to Bayern Munich’s +47, and their xPTS (expected points) is only 51.34 compared to the actual tally of 63. Obviously it’s all about the results, but there’s a reason why Dortmund are big underdogs on Saturday.

 

Bayern Munich’s xPTS of 63.92 is actually higher than their season point total of 61 so they’ve slightly under-performed thus far. Striker Robert Lewandowski has been partly to blame for their lack of finishing and will be going for his 200th career Bundesliga goal against his former club with a chance to put that all behind him.

There should be no shortage of scoring chances against Dortmund, it’ll just be about putting them away and not leaving themselves exposed to constant counter-attacks.

You can expect a flurry of wagers to come in Saturday morning especially considering the game will be widely available on TV. Dortmund will surely attract some public bets as the trendy underdogs and sportsbooks should welcome the tickets to offset sharp money on Bayern.

Right now I like the value on Bayern Munich to come away with all three points and surpass Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga, but be sure to shop around the betting market for the best price. While many sportsbooks list Bayern at -190, you can still find a handful in the -180 range and potentially lower.

Value Play

  • Bayern Munich (-180) vs. Dortmund
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